What’s inside?
Here are the quick highlights and analysis you need from the week in maritime global trade, powered by Maritime AI™ insights.
True Confidence Incident Lowers the Ecosystem’s Confidence
Unsurprisingly, the Houthi missile attack on the True Confidence vessel, which resulted in three fatalities and severe injuries, has lowered the maritime ecosystem’s confidence about remaining safe in the Red Sea.
The vessel was formerly owned by Oaktree, a U.S./UK-based fund. It is no longer under their ownership, proving the arbitrary nature of who the Houthis ultimately target and their lack of caring about human casualties with no direct relation to the conflict.
In the immediate aftermath of the attack, Windward’s insights revealed a significant impact on market behavior:
- A sharp 225% surge in the number of vessels anchoring at the port waiting areas in the Suez Canal (North and South of the Canal)
- Our data further shows that 61% of these anchorings occurred after 13:30 UTC, coinciding with the time of the attack
The attacks on the Rubymar and True Confidence highlight the potential impact of a single attack/ship. These incidents are likely to reduce crew willingness to transit the Red Sea and will impact the freight rates of this voyage, driving more traffic around The Cape of Good Hope. This route has less checkpoints than the Red Sea and could lead to an increase in deceptive shipping practices.
A CNN article featuring Windward’s AI-powered insights shows a significant 37% drop in bulk carrier traffic between November 2023 and February 2024, with the latter period recording the lowest number of bulk vessel passage in two years.
Flag Changes Are Coming…Where are These Vessels Going?
Windward’s proprietary data shows that between January and February 2024, there has been a 50% increase in port calls by vessels that previously changed their flag. Our insights show that it is possible that port calls by such vessels will also increase in March 2024 based on the data we have so far for the beginning of the month (March 1-10).
Where do the vessels that changed their flags go? Sixty-four percent (64%) of the port calls that followed a MMSI change are conducted in China, 20% are in Turkey, and 16% are in India.
EVERYTHING You Need to Know About Recent Maritime Events
Two years of Russia’s war. The sinking of the Rubymar. The Panama Canal drought. Maritime change is constant, so the ability to adapt and maintain real-time awareness of global events is crucial. Here are our best recent analyses to provide you with the actionable insights you need to be proactive.
2-Year Russia Report
Global trade and sanctions implementation have been significantly altered, perhaps permanently, by Russia’s war. Get Windward’s unique AI insights on how the conflict has impacted trade routes, supply chains, DSPs, sanctions, and the rise of the gray and dark fleets.
Global Trade is Coping with Disruption
A major line was crossed with the Rubymar vessel, the first vessel to sink due to a Houthi attack. The Impact of the Disruptive Environment on Global Trade report examines multiple trends, including who’s avoiding the Red Sea, to analyze how global trade has changed.
What’s Popping in Panama?
Container vessel and bulk carrier visits to the Panama Canal hit a record low during the past two years, while another vessel type is poised to hit its peak. Discover how the Panama Canal drought has changed the landscape and four critical capabilities you need.
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