Recent Activities in Chinese Waters Aren’t As They Appear!

Thirty two vessels were observed by Windward Early Detection conducting STS operations from December 9-16. This is more than triple the expected number!

The average number of vessels over the past 4 years is six, making the recent spike to 32 particularly notable. That volume of STS activity among passenger vessels is highly unusual. Passenger vessels do not engage in the transfer of cargo from one to another, which is a frequent reason for ship-to-ship operations. But passenger ships can meet bunkering vessels or tankers for refueling. Windward’s risk models can differentiate between the types of STS operations. 

In this case, all the meetings were classified as “other operations”, which raises suspicion and warrants further examination. 

Significant Chinese military activities occurred near Taiwan in the past week. This area is approximately 600 kilometers northeast of Macau. These operations heightened regional tensions and drew international attention.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported detecting a substantial Chinese naval presence, including around 90 ships operating near the island. This marks one of the largest Chinese naval deployments in recent decades.

The anomaly of slow-speed activity off the coast of Macau and the investigation that followed, reveal a case of deliberate third-party RF interference in a “hot” area, with a level of GPS jamming never seen there before.

GPS jamming is deliberate interference with Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, which can distort or block the signals that vessels rely on for accurate navigation and location tracking. This can lead to significant local operational disruptions, including false positional data, unauthorized entries into restricted areas, and potential collisions in busy sea lanes.

Instances of GPS jamming are becoming increasingly common. They are used to gain military and tactical advantage, mislead surveillance, obscure or mask illicit activities, interfere with civilian infrastructure, and create economic disruption.

The Red Sea became a hot spot of GPS jamming in 2024, as did the Mediterranean, Gulf of Aden, and the Persian Gulf. Windward also detected a third-party interference event off the coast of Sudan in August 2024. By contrast, the area off the coast of Macau, where this incident seemingly occurred, is normally an area of low levels of GPS jamming interference. 

Windward Early Detection is a NEW, AI-based solution that acts like a crystal ball, providing a consistent view of world events that may disrupt supply chains, impact global trade, or threaten security.

Powered by MAI Expert™, our generative AI virtual analyst, Early Detection identifies critical emerging anomalies, while also providing context, insights and recommendations for action.

Being able to detect anomalies is an important first step. But after that initial detection, it’s equally important to have the ability to correctly contextualize the scenario. Otherwise, you might confuse GPS jamming with ship-to-ship meetings.