Maritime Global Trade Roundup – April 25, 2024

What’s going on with an alleged Iranian spying vessel? How did Iran’s missile attack and ship hijacking impact the six major carriers? 

This week’s Maritime Global Trade Roundup has these answers and more, including info on Russia’s oil supply to China. Check out the easily-digestible highlights and trends, powered by Maritime AI™ insights.

First, take a quick look at Windward’s refreshed homepage! 

Alleged Iranian Spy Ship Returns to Iran

• The Behshad, an Iranian general cargo vessel owned by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, crossed the Hormuz Strait last week after sailing in the Red Sea for three years.
• The vessel has anchored at the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) border area of Yemen, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia since 2021. According to open sources, it was used as an espionage vessel operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in the Red Sea.
• The vessel departed its position at the beginning of 2024 for the first time and sailed south in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sailing for three months in the Gulf of Aden – within Somalia and Djibouti’s EEZs.
• The vessel’s AIS transmission was lost on April 4. On April 18, the ship appeared in the Gulf of Oman, updating its destination to the port of Bandar Abbas. The vessel then crossed the Hormuz Strait and started engaging in dark activity in the Bandar Abbas Port waiting area.

• Optical satellite imagery shows that on April 20, 2024, at 07:01 UTC, a vessel similar in appearance and size (approximately 170 meters in length, 30 meters in width and with bright white/gray deck) was sailing near the Bandar Abbas Port Waiting Area, at 27°4’6″N, 56°16’31″E, while not transmitting its AIS signal.

• It is possible (as suggested by open sources) that the Behshad returned to Iranian waters due to the possible risk of attack following Iran’s latest moves, and will remain in the area.

Impact of the Iranian Attack and Seizure of MSC Aries on Six Major Carriers

• Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on April 13, after the Iranian regime started threatening to attack Israel on April 1, following an airstrike in Syria.
• Following Iran’s missile attack, Windward’s data regarding the containers of the six major carriers (MSC, Maersk, COSCO, CMA CGM, ONE, Hapag-Lloyd) shows a 28% increase in area visits by the six major carriers in The Cape of Good Hope when comparing April 7-13 to April 14-20, 2024. The increase comes after three weeks of decreasing  area visits to The Cape of Good Hope. This is noteworthy because The Cape of Good Hope route is often used as a detour when the Red Sea is considered too risky. 

Area visits by six major carriers in The Cape of Good Hope by week, October 22, 2023-April 20, 2024.

• In addition, Windward’s data for April 7-13 showed a 600% increase in dark activities conducted by vessels of the six major carriers in the Red Sea. This marks the highest number of dark activities by these vessels since December 2023, at the height of the Houthi attacks against merchant vessels.

Dark activities by six major carriers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions by week, October 22, 2023-April 20, 2024.

• It is possible that due to the seizure of the MSC Aries and the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Arabian Gulf regions, carriers are again adopting evasive measures to keep away from possibly dangerous areas and hiding their location in potentially dangerous regions as safety measures against seizures.

Increase in Russian Oil Supply to China

• China’s oil imports from Russia increased by 12.8% YTD in March 2024, while Russia remains the top oil supplier to China, selling 2.55 million barrels per day.
• By using Windward’s Sequence Search function, we see the highest number of port calls by crude oil tankers previously making a port call in Russia in March 2024. That’s a 127% increase in port calls by crude oil tankers in China after making a port call in Russia compared to March 2023.
• In addition, Windward’s insights show that in the middle of March 2023, the number of weekly port calls in China by crude oil tankers previously conducting a port call in Russia peaked (highest rate since November 2023). Also, last week (April 14-20) showed a 73% increase in port calls by crude oil tankers coming from Russia compared to the previous week.

Port calls in China by crude oil tankers previously conducting a port call in Russia, April 30, 2023-April 20, 2024.

• While OFAC and EU sanctions keep blocking Russian oil trade in Europe and the G7 countries, China  remains one of the few countries to buy oil from Russia. Open sources suggest that it is possible that the Chinese government-owned CNOOC is currently stockpiling oil to bolster energy security, which might correspond with the increase in Russian oil imports seen lately in China.