Sometimes you read an article about your industry and think, “Yes. THIS!”
Politico’s “Private companies need to get better at monitoring threats” article really hit the nail on the head regarding underwater infrastructure and the overall maritime risk landscape. This is a hot topic following the damage to two underwater cables in the Baltic Sea and the FCC announcement that it will update undersea cable regulations.
Troubling Trends Before the Underwater Cables Were Cut
Elisabeth Braw, author of the upcoming book, Undersea War, and a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, lays out the serious obstacles facing law enforcement and intelligence agencies, as well as commercial maritime organizations, and the potentially disastrous consequences of not overcoming those challenges.
She starts by writing about the two privately-owned undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea that were cut last week. Windward posted about this breaking news extensively on X (formerly known as Twitter), and LinkedIn, offering our AI-powered insights.
Braw assigns geopolitical motivation to the cable cutting, which seems likely given our data: Windward’s Early Detection insights have been tracking troubling patterns for months. Here’s what we found (numbers are compared to the forecasted value):
🚢 653% more vessels drifting in Finland’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with Russian compliance risks
📈 A stark 30% increase in dark activity by vessels with Russian compliance risks in the Baltic Sea was flagged during the week of November 5 (these vessels turned off AIS, potentially to evade detection or sanctions)
This spike is part of a larger, years-long upward trend, showing how non-compliant behaviors are escalating.
Windward has analyzed previous underwater cable incidents, such as a Baltic Sea gas pipeline suffering damage, allegedly by a Hong Kong-flagged container ship, in October 2023.
Organizations are Feeling the Political-Risk Loss Burn
The Politico article illustrates how bad things have gotten in terms of geopolitical risks:
“According to global insurance broker WTW’s 2024 political-risk survey, last year 69 percent of participating companies experienced supply-chain disruptions due to geopolitical events, and 72 percent experienced political-risk losses…
And that means businesses – especially ones operating sensitive installations – need to know whether those who might have geopolitically hostile intentions are nearby.”
Shaw concludes her Politico article by noting that the old security methods are now antiquated:
“Businesses have long had staffers keeping an eye on global developments – individuals following the news, reading reports, participating in conferences and the like. Such monitoring has helped companies decide where to set up new operations, where to invest, where it’s safe for their executives to travel and where the risk of corruption and criminal violence is acceptable.
But today, the business environment has moved beyond such general risk monitoring. Whether direct or indirect, almost any company is now at risk of geopolitically motivated harm.”
So what can organizations do to protect underwater cables and themselves?
Understand the Critical Nature of Underwater Cables
Perhaps the first step is understanding how much our inter-connected, global world depends on underwater cables. They play a crucial role in our daily lives. Underwater pipelines transport essential resources, such as natural gas and oil, from offshore production sites to onshore facilities. This ensures a steady energy supply worldwide.
Underwater cables transmit telecommunications signals, such as internet and data, across vast distances, forming the backbone of global connectivity. This infrastructure is vital for maintaining energy distribution, supporting the digital economy, and keeping the world connected.
An important update from Tom’s Hardware shows that the latest incident has spurred action:
“The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) says that it will review and update its rules regarding submarine communications cables, especially after the incident in the Baltic Sea earlier this week where a Chinese freighter sailing from Russia is suspected to have sabotaged two undersea internet cables that connect Sweden and Finland to the rest of Central Europe, not to mention numerous other cable sabotage incidents spanning multiple regions this year. According to Reuters, this update will address the U.S.’s national security concerns for the more than 400 undersea cables that keep the world interconnected.”
Upgrade Governmental Capabilities
Despite their critical importance, the protection and monitoring of underwater infrastructure remains alarmingly inadequate in many parts of the world. This issue has become a central concern for national governments and security organizations.
The incidents in 2023 and this recent one illustrate how damage to infrastructure can occur without immediate detection, whether due to natural events, or human actions. These critical infrastructures are highly vulnerable and most government agencies do not possess the technology necessary to stay prepared.
Windward Can Help!
Windward supports some of the top intelligence and defense, and law enforcement agencies with full visibility, innovative investigative capabilities and automated alerts. Our patented, AI-powered technology, combined with the maritime domain expertise Windward has amassed, offers organizations the ability to better protect underwater infrastructure and stay vigilant regarding the maritime and supply chain threats that Braw so skillfully outlined in Politico.
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