2025 Top Trends in Global Trade

2024 was the year of Gen AI! 

The landscape shifted dramatically. Forbes reports that 72% of executives say they use Gen AI at least once a week, up from 37% in 2023, according to a survey of 800 executives out of the University of Pennsylvania’s AI research center.

The appeal of explainability and context was quickly apparent for the global trade ecosystem. The sheer volume of data generated daily – from AIS signals and satellite imagery, to trade documents and sanctions updates – is staggering. Combine this with the increasing frequency of disruptions, black swan events, and geopolitical shifts, and it’s clear that human decision-making alone cannot keep pace.

But there is a higher level to reach. At the beginning of the Gen AI revolution, which started with Chat GPT, many people looked at Gen AI as something that they could dabble with on the side to change the way they worked as individuals. We saw a shift in 2024, as organizations began asking how to consistently bring Gen AI into their day-to-day tasks in a collaborative manner. 

Now, organizations are asking how to best implement this technology inside their workflows, integrate Gen AI agents within their systems, and much more.   

Gen AI’s technical maturity will spur much greater enterprise adoption in 2025. It will become a must-have for forward-looking organizations in the global trade and supply chain ecosystems in 2025. 

The challenge will not solely include managing or integrating data. It will be about making sense of it all, in real-time, across countless interconnected systems, in a coordinated and systemic manner. This approach will enable organizations to significantly amplify their results. Scalable intelligence is crucial for staying ahead in an industry where delays or missteps can ripple throughout the global supply chain. 

Stay tuned for virtual expert capabilities that save time and resources, standardize communication, and drive business growth through more efficient workflows.

The familiar pattern will once again play out in 2025: sudden geopolitical changes will result in sanctions, which will significantly alter trade flows. Or vice versa, with sanctions pushing stakeholders to adopt new trade patterns and flows.

Deceptive shipping practices (DSPs) will continue to shift and evolve, as always, depending on regulations, sanctions, and opportunities. Location (GNSS) manipulation is possibly growing the fastest, with an increase in quarterly average in 2024 by 52% vs. 2023. 

2024 also saw a 28% increase in ownership changes by Russian-affiliated tankers and major spikes in designated companies in the UAE (+189%), India (+3,100%), Liberia (+1,850%), and Panama (+700%). 

The growing influence of the BRICS coalition – particularly with the addition of new member states Saudi Arabia and the UAE – introduces a counterweight to Western trade and regulatory frameworks. At the 2024 BRICS summit, member nations proposed alternative payment systems for trade to circumvent reliance on the U.S. dollar. This could create parallel trade networks that challenge the effectiveness of G7-led sanctions and environmental regulations. 

Maybe a silver lining for traders and shippers among these challenges is that governments are increasingly speaking with a “single voice.” Sanctions compliance officers were accustomed to receiving single visits from different agencies within. 

In 2025, they will often arrive as a delegation: combined teams from the commerce and treasury departments, and others. There is also “tri-seal” guidance, with three or more regulators combining to issue guidance. This unification will help traders and shippers streamline processes and work more efficiently. 

Traders & Shippers Will Watch Iran-Linked Vessels Closely

Passed earlier this year, the SHIP Act requires the American president to impose blocking sanctions and other restrictions on certain foreign persons – including owners and operators of ports, vessels, and refineries – involved in activities related to the transportation, processing, and refining of Iranian-origin crude oil, or petroleum products. 

Four hundred Iran-linked vessels were flagged following the SHIP Act in the fall of 2024 and the industry was surprised to discover that 20% were liquified petroleum gas (LPG) tankers. Iran’s LPG exports rose to a record, despite U.S. sanctions. 

Also, Syria’s regime was swiftly and surprisingly toppled. Should we expect more sanctions and shifting trade flows? Stay tuned in 2025…

The timeline between vessels engaging in deceptive shipping practices (DSPs) to being designated by regulators shortened noticeably in 2024. Also, governing bodies shifted from entirely focusing on sanctioned countries, to also looking at the third-party countries that support them, particularly regarding Russian oil. This proved partially effective, but also further complicated compliance.  

The Trump Effect 

Incoming American President Donald J. Trump has spoken frequently about again imposing tariffs on trade with China – plus Mexico and Canada, potentially complicating plans to mitigate the effects of the China tariffs. During Trump’s previous stint, tariffs on Chinese goods reached over $550 billion. 

The maritime ecosystem will feel this impact almost immediately. Chinese ports such as Shanghai and Ningbo – currently among the busiest in the world – may see reduced U.S.-bound cargo volumes. Alternative manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia and India could experience growth. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. surged by 36% during the height of the U.S.-China trade war in 2019. A similar pattern is likely to repeat, further diversifying global shipping routes.

See Windward’s analysis for a deeper dive on Trump’s intended tariffs. 

Russia’s war and the accompanying sanctions may also look quite different in 2025. Sanctions have significantly curtailed Russia’s ability to export crude oil, liquid natural gas (LNG), and other commodities, leading to the proliferation of a gray fleet – vessels engaged in suspicious trading to bypass restrictions. Legitimate trade flows are expected to resume if sanctions are lifted, reducing reliance on deceptive practices. 

This realignment would underscore the need to be able to adapt quickly to the constantly changing regulatory landscape. 

Critical and Underwater Infrastructure

Ports, pipelines, and communication networks are increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks and physical threats, despite their crucial role in our daily lives. Following the severing of two underwater communication cables in the Baltic Sea toward the end of 2024, expect this to be a hot topic in 2025. 

The latest attack has already spurred action even before the start of 2025: 

“The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) says that it will review and update its rules regarding submarine communications cables, especially after the incident in the Baltic Sea earlier this week where a Chinese freighter sailing from Russia is suspected to have sabotaged two undersea internet cables that connect Sweden and Finland to the rest of Central Europe…”

Heightened Governmental Focus on the Arctic 

Governments are increasingly shaping the maritime domain through strategic initiatives and regulatory frameworks. One of the most significant trends in 2025 is the heightened focus on Arctic exploration and passage. With ice caps continuing to retreat, the Arctic is becoming a critical arena for resource extraction and shipping. 

TradeWinds notes that the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which services the Arctic ports, looks set to hit record numbers by the end of 2024, with most of the shipments moving between Russia and China. 

With nations like Russia, China, and the United States vying for control, Russia’s NSR has become a key focus of its maritime strategy, with significant investments in icebreakers and infrastructure. However, the environmental risks associated with Arctic development remain a contentious issue, requiring a balanced approach.

The South China Sea also continues to heat up, with geopolitical tensions escalating. Chinese vessels are adopting increasingly aggressive tactics in disputed waters. This includes illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, which threatens regional stability and depletes marine resources.

Uncertainty is here to stay, due to geopolitical events and accompanying risk mitigation strategies, supply chain volatility, and change created by emerging technologies. The good news is that opportunities often arise from crises…

For instance, bunkering organizations who were the first to know about trade routes that changed due to the Houthis attacks in the Red Sea were able to capitalize. 

Organizations cannot be proactive if they do not know what’s coming around the corner. Unknown unknowns pop up, seemingly out of nowhere, and will likely create new headaches in 2025 for traders and shippers, supply chain and logistics organizations, and government agencies. 

That’s why early detection will be imperative for 2025. Automatic warnings for major disruptions and potential threats, while there is still time to act, can optimize organizations’ decision-making offering insights on behavioral outliers, new risk profiles, targets, and emerging trends in real time. This results in informed strategic planning and proactive measures.  

Early detection paired with Gen AI can provide immediate context and explainability, plus insights and recommendations for action, on emerging trends. Expect this to be a popular technology combination for achieving proactivity and agility in 2025. 

Gen AI is changing the game and presents a tremendous opportunity for organizations that discover how to best integrate this technology into their existing systems and workflows. This will be necessary for a wide variety of reasons, including the frequent geopolitical changes. 

Risk is evolving and different types are emerging, causing cascades of new sanctions. How can global trading and supply chain organizations become proactive in this challenging environment?  

Windward can help! 

We work with potential and existing customers to understand their pain points and then jointly create a plan for how our AI technology can heal them. You can stay ahead by bringing AI and Gen AI into your workflows. 

Windward offers MAI Expert™, the industry’s first maritime Gen AI™ agent, to optimize global trade and maritime risk management, automate screening and investigations, and promote business growth. It can integrate with your systems and workflows, creating greater efficiencies.  

You can also benefit from a configurable approach to risk with Organization Defined Risk. Early Detection, which is powered by MAI Expert, enables proactivity, exposing the unknown unknowns and emerging trends. 

Interested in optimizing the coming year?