Hormuz Traffic Falls as Military Pressure Intensifies

At a Glance

• AIS-visible traffic fell to just five transits during the June 10–11 reporting period, among the lowest levels observed since the conflict began.
• SAR imagery detected three dark vessels operating inside the Strait’s deep-water channel despite minimal visible commercial movement.
• More than 60 IRGC high-speed craft were observed across Hormuz, the highest concentration recorded in recent weeks.
• Sixteen dark tankers remained staged in the Larak-Qeshm channel, including an active ship-to-ship transfer.
• U.S. forces disabled both M/T SETTEBELLO and M/T JALVEER in the Gulf of Oman.
• Both crude terminals at Kharg Island were empty for the first time since early June.
• A potential spill developed around a bulk carrier at Kharg’s LPG and sulphur terminal.

Operational Overview

The Strait of Hormuz remains operational, but increasingly constrained.

While Iranian officials continue to characterize the Strait as closed, recent observations suggest a more nuanced reality. Commercial traffic continues to move, but at extremely low levels. Dark vessel activity remains persistent, military enforcement continues to expand, and maritime visibility across the region is increasingly degraded by AIS suppression and non-cooperative operations.

AIS-visible traffic fell to just five transits during the June 10–11 reporting period, marking a second consecutive decline and one of the lowest levels recorded since the conflict began. At the same time, SAR imagery identified three dark vessel contacts operating inside the Strait’s deep-water channel, indicating that movement continues despite the near absence of visible commercial traffic.

IRGC activity also intensified. Windward identified more than 60 high-speed craft operating across the Strait on June 10, while dark tanker staging remained elevated in the Larak-Qeshm channel, where 16 dark tankers and an active ship-to-ship transfer were observed.

Meanwhile, U.S. enforcement continued to pressure Iran-linked shipping beyond Iranian territorial waters. CENTCOM reported disabling both M/T SETTEBELLO and M/T JALVEER in the Gulf of Oman, reinforcing that sanctioned vessels remain vulnerable throughout the broader operating area.

The result is a maritime environment defined by restricted commercial movement, elevated military activity, persistent dark fleet operations, and continued enforcement pressure on Iranian maritime logistics.

IRGC Small-Craft Activity Reaches a Recent Peak

EO imagery collected on June 10 identified more than 60 IRGC high-speed craft operating across the Strait of Hormuz, the highest concentration observed in recent weeks.

The primary concentration consisted of approximately 50 craft moving westbound from the vicinity of Hormuz Island toward Qeshm Port. Representing roughly 80% of all observed activity, the formation was spread across a wide front and displayed movement patterns consistent with coordinated transit rather than static patrol operations.

Additional craft were observed operating along the southern Qeshm coastline, continuing a pattern of coastal staging and patrol activity documented in previous collections.

Small groups of four to five high-speed craft were also observed crossing the open Strait between Iran and Oman. Their spacing and movement patterns suggest relay-style transit operations, allowing short-range vessels to operate across longer distances in stages.

Taken together, the observations indicate sustained IRGC maritime-control activity throughout the Strait and surrounding coastal approaches.

Larak-Qeshm Remains a Dark Tanker Staging Zone

Windward identified 16 dark tankers holding position in the Larak-Qeshm channel on June 10.

The group included two VLCCs, one Suezmax, one Aframax, ten MR/LR tankers, and two smaller product tankers. Eleven vessels were assessed as operating in ballast, while five appeared laden.

The mix of ballast VLCCs alongside laden Suezmax and Aframax tankers is consistent with a developing loading queue awaiting a future export opportunity.

A ship-to-ship transfer was also underway between two dark tankers measuring approximately 170 meters each. One vessel appeared ballast and the other laden. No significant draft change was observed between imagery collections, suggesting the transfer was either in its earliest stages or had not yet begun.

The collection also reinforced the unexplained disappearance of a previously tracked 183-meter dark Panamax tanker. The vessel had been continuously observed in the channel between May 28 and June 7 before disappearing. Its departure route, destination, and cargo status remain unknown.

AIS-Visible Traffic Falls to Conflict-Era Lows

Commercial traffic visible through AIS declined for a second consecutive reporting period.

Only five AIS-visible movements were recorded between June 10 and June 11, comprising four outbound transits and a single inbound transit.

All four outbound movements involved coastal cargo vessels under 80 meters in length. The sole inbound transit was a 170-meter general cargo vessel operating on a regional shuttle route linking Sohar, Qatar, and the UAE.

The current traffic level is among the lowest observed since the conflict began and reflects both operational caution and continued AIS suppression across the region.

Windward assesses that electronic interference, defensive transponder silencing, and broader military activity continue to distort the visible maritime picture inside Hormuz.

Three Dark Contacts Detected Inside the Strait

SAR imagery collected on June 11 identified three dark vessel contacts operating inside the Strait’s deep-water channel.

None of the contacts were transmitting AIS at the time of collection. Based on orientation analysis, two appeared to be moving northwest, while a third was assessed as oriented northward.

The contacts were detected inside the shipping-lane zone, while no vessel activity was observed within portions of the central commercial lane.

Although SAR imagery alone cannot conclusively determine vessel movement, the collection reinforces a consistent pattern: visible traffic remains limited, but non-cooperative activity continues.

The same collection also confirmed the absence of BARAKAH (IMO 9902615) from its previously observed anchorage position off the Omani Peninsula. The VLCC had remained AIS-dark and stationary in the area for at least three weeks before disappearing.

Together, the observations suggest that movement through Hormuz continues under increasingly restricted visibility conditions.

U.S. Enforcement Expands in the Gulf of Oman

SETTEBELLO Disabled

U.S. CENTCOM reported that U.S. forces disabled the Palau-flagged tanker M/T SETTEBELLO in the Gulf of Oman after the vessel allegedly violated the blockade by transporting Iranian oil.

SETTEBELLO is a known dark fleet tanker that has historically transported Iranian fuel oil and heavy crude loaded from Bandar Mahshahr. The vessel has repeatedly spoofed its location to conceal Iranian loadings and has undergone multiple name, flag, and ownership changes over recent years.

The tanker has also operated without known marine insurance and has used fraudulent registry documentation.

JALVEER Disabled Following Reported Attack

M/T JALVEER, a Guinea-Bissau-flagged tanker linked to the Iran sanctions program, was also disabled by U.S. forces after reportedly transporting Iranian oil.

Prior to the strike, the vessel had maintained an AIS blackout since May 26 and accumulated multiple dark activity events. Windward additionally identified extensive ship-to-ship transfer activity associated with the vessel’s operating profile.

On June 11, JALVEER was struck near Shinas, Oman. A fire developed in the engine room and funnel area before CENTCOM later confirmed that U.S. forces had disabled the vessel using two Hellfire missiles.

The back-to-back actions against SETTEBELLO and JALVEER reinforce that sanctions enforcement remains active across the Gulf of Oman and is not limited to vessels operating near Iranian ports.

Kharg Export Activity Remains Uncertain

EO imagery collected on June 11 showed both crude terminals at Kharg Island empty for the first time since early June.

The eastern terminal was clear after the departure of two previously tracked tankers, including a Panamax vessel that had remained at berth for more than seven days. Whether the vessel completed loading remains unclear. Although transfer hoses had been connected for several days, no loaded departure was visually confirmed.

The western terminal was also empty during the collection.

At the LPG and sulphur terminal, the bulk carrier first observed on June 10 remained alongside. Imagery identified a dark surface sheen around the vessel extending into open water southeast of the berth, consistent with a possible spill. A tug was observed approaching the vessel at an apparent emergency speed.

The observations create additional uncertainty around near-term export activity at Kharg, even as vessel queues and tanker staging continue elsewhere in the region.

Outlook

The Strait of Hormuz remains operational, but under severe constraints.

Commercial traffic continues to move at historically low levels, while dark vessel activity persists inside key shipping corridors. IRGC small-craft operations remain elevated, dark tanker staging continues across the Larak-Qeshm channel, and AIS visibility remains heavily degraded.

At the same time, U.S. enforcement actions against Iran-linked shipping continue to expand geographically, increasing the risks faced by vessels employing deceptive shipping practices or operating without AIS.

The combination of elevated military activity, persistent dark fleet operations, uncertain export activity at Kharg, and continued kinetic enforcement suggests that the Strait remains one of the most operationally complex maritime environments in the world.

Rather than a closed waterway, Hormuz is increasingly functioning as a tightly controlled maritime corridor shaped by surveillance, enforcement, concealment, and constrained commercial movement.