LPG Flows Test the Blockade as Hormuz Tightens

At a Glance

• Iran-linked LPG cargoes reached India and Pakistan despite the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
• Five LPG carriers used AIS spoofing, dark transit, and fraudulent flags to obscure loading and voyage patterns.
• U.S. INDOPACOM interdicted DAVINA near Sri Lanka, expanding enforcement into the western Indian Ocean.
• U.S. CENTCOM disabled MT MARIVEX in the Gulf of Oman, continuing kinetic blockade enforcement.
• Strait of Hormuz AIS-visible transits dropped sharply after the MARIVEX disabling.
• Kharg Island crude loading remains uncertain, while the first sulphur loading event of the conflict period was observed.
• IRGC high-speed craft activity remains elevated, including a record single-zone concentration in the northeast Strait.

Operational Overview

The June 5–10 reporting period shows a maritime environment under tightening enforcement, but not full immobilization. While Iranian crude exports remain heavily constrained, limited LPG cargoes continue reaching South Asian markets through deceptive shipping practices. At the same time, U.S. enforcement is expanding geographically, commercial traffic through Hormuz is adjusting to new risks, and Iranian export activity remains active despite continued pressure.

At the same time, U.S. enforcement continues to expand geographically and operationally. INDOPACOM boarded the sanctioned tanker DAVINA near Sri Lanka, while CENTCOM disabled MT MARIVEX in the Gulf of Oman. These actions show that enforcement is no longer limited to the immediate Strait of Hormuz operating area.

Inside Hormuz, commercial movement continues, but visibility remains degraded. Bulk carrier inbound traffic surged after CENTCOM announced humanitarian transit permissions, while AIS-visible crossings later fell sharply following the MARIVEX disabling, likely reflecting defensive transponder silencing by merchant vessels.

Kharg Island remains active but uneven. Crude loading at the eastern T-jetty remains ambiguous, while a new sulphur loading event at the south LPG and sulphur terminal suggests Iranian export activity is diversifying beyond crude under pressure.

The result is a constrained but adaptive maritime environment where enforcement is limiting Iranian crude flows, but LPG movements, small-vessel trade, dark tanker staging, and non-crude exports continue to test the edges of the blockade.

LPG Carriers Break Through to South Asia

Windward analysis of Vortexa data identified five Iran-trading LPG carriers that broke the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports between April and May 2026.

Four discharged cargoes in India and one in Pakistan. Four of the five vessels are U.S.-sanctioned, two operate under fraudulent flag registries, and all five used deceptive shipping practices, including AIS spoofing and dark transit, to obscure loading locations and voyage destinations.

The pattern is significant because the blockade has effectively cut off Iranian crude flows to China, but limited LPG volumes are still reaching South Asian markets. Windward has not tracked any Iran-trading VLCC arriving in Asia via Malacca, Sunda, or Lombok since May 4.

One Panama-flagged very large gas carrier entered Hormuz with AIS visible on May 2, loaded at Bandar Mahshahr on May 9, and discharged at Mangalore on May 20. After leaving India, the vessel sailed back toward the Gulf of Oman, switched off AIS upon re-entering the blockade area, and is now spoofing its location along the Omani coastline.

A U.S.-sanctioned coastal tanker operating under a fraudulent Mali flag exited Hormuz with AIS visible on April 18, then went dark while sailing toward India. It discharged at Porbandar before calling Jaigad, then returned toward the Gulf of Oman under another extended dark period.

Another U.S.-sanctioned Palau-flagged coastal vessel entered Hormuz on April 11 and later spoofed its position after loading. It discharged at Porbandar on May 26 after more than a month-long voyage that included a dark period outside the blockade line.

A U.S.-sanctioned handysize LPG carrier under a fraudulent Botswana flag exited Hormuz on April 24, went dark, and later reappeared while hugging the Iranian, Pakistani, and Indian coastlines before reaching the Jaigarh waiting area.

A Comoros-flagged coastal tanker, not sanctioned but assessed as a long-time Iran LPG trader, entered Hormuz on April 14, then spoofed its location to appear loading at Khor Al Zubair, Iraq. It later conducted a dark outbound transit and reappeared in Pakistan before discharging at Karachi.

Taken together, the LPG carrier behavior shows a coordinated workaround built on spoofing, fraudulent flagging, and dark transit. Crude flows to East Asia remain heavily constrained, but Iranian LPG continues to move into South Asian markets through narrower, harder-to-track channels.

U.S. Enforcement Expands Beyond Hormuz

U.S. enforcement against Iran-linked tankers continued to expand beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The sanctioned tanker DAVINA, currently operating under the name LENORE, resumed AIS transmission on June 5 after a six-week offline period. During that period, U.S. INDOPACOM forces boarded the vessel near Galle, Sri Lanka, while it was reportedly carrying 1.9 million barrels of Iranian oil.

The interdiction expands U.S. action against Iranian shadow fleet tankers into the western Indian Ocean approaches, beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea operating areas.

Following the interdiction, Windward identified 17 sanctioned vessels operating in the CENTCOM area that match DAVINA’s profile: loading Iranian oil, exiting Hormuz, and showing no detected return transit. Four remain dark, while the remainder continue transmitting AIS.

The pattern indicates that vessels completing outbound Iranian oil voyages without returning through Hormuz may become increasingly relevant to enforcement targeting.

MT MARIVEX Disabled as Kinetic Enforcement Continues

U.S. CENTCOM announced that U.S. forces disabled the sanctioned Palau-flagged tanker MT MARIVEX in the Gulf of Oman as it attempted to sail toward an Iranian port.

The vessel was unladen at the time. UKMTO had earlier reported a tanker on fire 15 nautical miles northeast of Masirah, Oman, which Windward analysis correlates with MARIVEX’s position and casualty profile.

MARIVEX had been effectively stationary off the Omani coast since June 7, drifting at low speed without a declared destination or ETA. The vessel remained AIS-visible, indicating severe casualty status but not immediate total loss. All 24 Indian seafarers onboard were evacuated and reported safe.

MARIVEX was sanctioned under the U.S. Iran sanctions program following an April 2026 port call at Shahid Rajai, Iran. Its recent activity included calls in Iran and India, plus a short ship-to-ship meeting in UAE waters.

The disabling continues the pattern of kinetic U.S. blockade enforcement established by the June 2 Hellfire strike on MT LEXIE.

Bulk Carrier Inbound Traffic Surges Through Hormuz

Following CENTCOM’s humanitarian transit announcement, Windward documented a clear increase in inbound bulk carrier traffic through Hormuz. SAR and EO imagery collected on June 5 identified at least five dark bulk carriers entering the Strait alongside additional AIS-transmitting commercial traffic. 

Two further inbound bulk carrier crossings were recorded on June 6, reinforcing the trend.

The surge indicates that commercial traffic can still move through Hormuz when conditions allow, but many vessels are doing so under reduced visibility.

Hormuz Transits Drop After MARIVEX Disabling

AIS-visible transit activity dropped sharply across the June 9–10 cycle.

Windward identified only three corridor crossings, down from eight in the prior cycle. The decline likely reflects a defensive response by merchant shipping to the June 8 disabling of MT MARIVEX, with vessels reducing AIS visibility during or before transit.

The June 9–10 crossings included two outbound and one inbound transit. One outbound vessel was a St. Kitts and Nevis-flagged bulk carrier with Iran-related dark activity and identity-tampering indicators. Another was a Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo vessel operating on a shuttle-like route between Khasab and Seerik. The inbound vessel was an India-flagged dhow conducting its third Strait crossing in 60 days.

The decline reinforces a broader visibility problem in Hormuz, that transit may continue, but AIS-visible traffic does not provide a reliable measure of actual movement.

IRGC Small-Craft Activity Reaches Record Northeast Concentration

IRGC high-speed craft activity remained elevated across the Strait of Hormuz.

On June 6, Windward’s IRGC speedboat tracker recorded 139 high-speed craft within the tracking area, with 91 concentrated in the northeast zone. This marked the largest single-zone concentration recorded in that area since tracking began, far exceeding the previous northeast peak of 15 craft on May 5.

The June 7 count consolidated to 107 craft in the northern corridor, with limited southern coverage likely understating the full total. Two main formations were observed, including a northern swarm of approximately 54 craft moving southbound through the northern corridor, and a western swarm of approximately 53 craft moving southwestward across the western corridor.

A stationary subgroup of approximately 30 craft was observed northwest of Larak Island, with no wake. Multiple curvilinear objects nearby were assessed as fishing nets or float lines.

Additional EO imagery south of Qeshm Island identified 18 high-speed craft operating near Hengam Island, most showing wake signatures consistent with northbound or northeast transit.

Windward assesses the June 6–7 activity as the highest sustained volume observed since IRGC patrol operations resumed after a temporary decrease.

Iranian Navy Vessel Observed in Struck Condition

EO imagery collected over the Strait of Hormuz on June 5 identified a stationary vessel northeast of Hormuz Island in a struck condition.

Windward assessed the vessel as likely an Iranian Navy ship. The vessel was observed stationary east of Bandar Abbas, with no visible way on.

The observation indicates a direct kinetic impact on Iranian Navy tonnage within the Hormuz operating area.

Kharg Activity Remains Active but Uneven

Kharg Island continued to show signs of export activity, but the picture remains mixed.

EO imagery collected between June 5 and June 10 showed continued but uneven export activity at Kharg Island. Two Panamax tankers were observed loading at the eastern T-jetty on June 5 and June 6, while the western terminal remained inactive after the departure of a previously loaded tanker.

By June 9, a new tanker had arrived at the eastern northeast berth with transfer hoses connected. However, later imagery showed the vessel still in ballast, creating uncertainty around whether loading had begun. By June 10, the berth was again empty after the vessel departed overnight.

Multiple dark tankers continued holding near the island, indicating sustained export demand despite ongoing operational disruptions.

First Sulphur Loading Event Observed at Kharg

EO imagery on June 10 identified a new approximately 180-meter bulk carrier alongside Kharg Island’s south LPG and sulphur terminal.

The vessel was not present in the June 9 collection. Open hatch covers were visible, and the absence of pressure spheres confirmed the vessel was a bulk carrier rather than an LPG carrier.

The south terminal is designed to handle both crushed sulphur and LPG cargoes. A bulk carrier at the berth is consistent with sulphur export operations.

This marks the first sulphur loading event recorded at Kharg since the start of the current conflict period and suggests Iranian non-crude export activity is continuing even as crude loading remains uneven.

Chabahar Remains an Active Holding Area

EO imagery on June 7 identified 15 vessels holding south of Chabahar, including four dark tankers, two of them VLCC-class. The anchorage has remained continuously active since late April, with some vessels holding position for weeks. The presence of large dark tankers alongside AIS-transmitting Iranian commercial vessels reinforces Chabahar’s role as a staging area for Iran-connected tonnage.

Khor Fakkan Ship-to-Ship Activity Remains Dense

EO imagery collected over Khor Fakkan between June 5 and June 8 identified multiple active ship-to-ship transfer configurations involving tankers, LNG carriers, and bulk vessels.

By June 8, three simultaneous dark VLCC ship-to-ship rafts were observed east of the anchorage, involving six VLCC-class tankers paired hull-to-hull within a concentrated transfer zone. A dark LNG carrier was also observed loading nearby.

Compared with late-May observations, transfer activity appears increasingly concealed, with no AIS-correlated host vessels identified. Windward assesses that Khor Fakkan remains an active cargo-transfer hub where crude, gas, and related commodities continue moving under increasingly dark conditions.

Larak Anchorage Remains an IRGC-Supported Dark Tanker Zone

The Larak–Qeshm holding area remained active throughout the reporting period.

A dark Panamax tanker that had been held at the Larak anchorage from May 28 through June 7 was absent in the June 8 and June 9 collections. The vessel had previously been documented loading at Kharg on May 20 before reappearing laden at Larak on May 28.

Possible explanations include cargo discharge at an Iranian port, ship-to-ship transfer to another tanker, or a dark outbound transit through Hormuz.

A new dark ship-to-ship configuration formed overnight at the anchorage on June 8, involving a 127-meter tanker and a 145-meter tanker, neither transmitting AIS.

On June 9, EO imagery identified six stationary dark tankers holding in the channel between Larak and Qeshm, with approximately 20 IRGC high-speed craft active nearby. Windward assesses the craft as supporting logistics runs, fuel supply, and crew transfer for the stationary tanker cluster.

The Larak anchorage continues to function as a dark staging and transfer zone under IRGC support.

Bushehr Dark Cargo Cluster Holds Position

EO imagery on June 5 identified approximately 15 stationary cargo vessels off Bushehr, the majority operating dark on AIS. No significant small-craft activity was observed beyond routine port operations.

The scene indicates continued non-loading vessel concentration at Bushehr under mostly dark conditions.

Houthi and Iran De-escalation Signals Have Not Changed Maritime Behavior

The Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea on June 8, stating that “all enemy movements” would be treated as legitimate military targets.

The statement does not amount to a full ban on commercial shipping, but it raises risk across the Red Sea bypass corridor, which has carried significant Saudi crude export volumes while Hormuz remains constrained.

On the same day, Iran’s military announced an end to offensive operations against Israel following reciprocal missile exchanges. The announcement marked a stated de-escalation after the most serious direct exchange since the April ceasefire.

As of this reporting cycle, Windward has not observed a corresponding change in U.S. blockade enforcement, IRGC presence in Hormuz, or commercial transit behavior through the Strait.

Outlook

The reporting period shows enforcement pressure continuing to reshape maritime activity around Iran. Crude flows remain heavily constrained, while LPG cargoes continue reaching South Asia through spoofing, dark transit, and fraudulent flags.

U.S. enforcement is expanding beyond Hormuz, commercial traffic is increasingly reducing AIS visibility in response to kinetic actions, and IRGC-supported tanker staging remains active across key holding areas.

At the same time, Kharg remains operational, non-crude exports are resuming, and dark fleet logistics networks continue adapting. The result is a maritime environment defined by simultaneous enforcement, concealment, and operational adaptation.