Suez Transits Are Up 59%, and Rates Are About to Fall

At a Glance

• Suez containership transits rose 59% between March and September 2026, from 139 to 221.
• The growth came from large ships of 300m and above, which rose from 22 transits in March to 127 in September. 
• Around 100 more large containerships now use Suez instead of routing around Africa, each completing round trips one to two weeks faster.
• Europe-to-Asia transits grew faster than Asia-to-Europe, consistent with carriers repositioning vessels and empty containers before shifting full loads.
• Only 10 of 215 transits by Houthi-threatened shipowners since March transmitted AIS, while Russian- and Iranian-owned ships almost all kept AIS on.
• The surplus depends on Bab el-Mandeb staying open, and a strike on a Western carrier could push traffic back around Africa.

Carriers Have Returned to Suez, and the Data Confirms It

Maritime media sources state that container shipping is moving from a capacity shortage to a surplus as carriers return to Suez and shorter voyages free up ships. Windward MIOC data supports this claim. Suez containership transits rose 59% from March to September, from 139 to 221. The growth came from large ships, 300m and above, up to 24,000 TEU, the post-Panamax to ultra-large vessels used on main Asia-Europe services, which rose from 22 to 127 transits a month. At the start of the war in March, most of these were only calling at Red Sea ports, and by August, most were sailing to Asian markets.

Europe-to-Asia transits grew faster than Asia-to-Europe. That is consistent with carriers repositioning ships first, moving vessels and empty containers back to Asia before shifting full cargo loads from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea and Suez Canal instead of around Africa, cutting one to two weeks off each voyage. Western and some Asian carriers are crossing Bab el-Mandeb with AIS off. Only 10 of 215 transits by these shipowners since March transmitted AIS, while Russian- and Iranian-owned ships almost all kept AIS on.

Expect Blank Sailings and Falling Rates in Q4

The Asia-Europe container trade is heading into a capacity surplus, meaning more ship space than cargo, in Q4 2026. Around 100 more large containerships now transit the Suez Canal instead of around Africa, compared to March, cutting one to two weeks off each round trip. Suez routing for Asia-Europe services has recovered to only about a quarter of pre-crisis levels, per Sea-Intelligence. Even a partial return matters, because carriers expanded Asia-Europe capacity by approximately 41% between May 2023 and May 2025 to cover the longer route around Africa, according to Alphaliner, meaning that every service that switches back to Suez frees ships the route no longer needs.

Shorter voyages mean each liner service needs fewer ships to keep its schedule, freeing capacity just as Europe-bound demand softens after the summer and ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday (1-7 Oct), when factory closures halt much of China’s export production. With more space than cargo, carriers compete for bookings and cut prices to fill empty space on their ships. Drewry’s World Container Index shows the Shanghai to Rotterdam rate fell about 15% between 3 and 24 Sep, from $4,092 to $3,485 per 40ft container (FEU, equal to two TEU), a standard unit for quoting spot rates, a decline driven by both returning capacity and softer demand. 

One Strike at Bab el-Mandeb Could Reverse It

That surplus depends greatly on Bab el-Mandeb, which any ship must pass unless only transporting cargoes to Red Sea ports and returning northbound via the Suez. Most of Bab el-Mandeb’s returning capacity is on predominantly Western carriers, which were previously under threat from the Houthis during their maritime attack campaign from 2023-2025. 

These ships are crossing the strait with AIS off, almost certainly for security reasons, and account for almost three-quarters of the capacity crossing the strait in August and September, while ships owned by Iran and Russia cross with AIS on. While the Houthis have continuously stated they are only targeting maritime traffic linked to Saudi Arabia since the group recommenced maritime attacks this summer, a collateral risk remains to all other traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb. A strike against one of these Western carriers may push traffic south again, back around Africa. 

The containerships linked to China, Russia, and Iran that have kept transiting are mostly smaller containerships — around 210m, between 2,000–3,500 TEU — running direct feeder services from China and India to Turkey, Egypt and Russia. If the predominantly Western carriers leave, these smaller ships would keep the number of transits at the strait relatively steady, even as most of the capacity disappears. Rerouted around Africa, the larger ships would face longer voyages again, reducing vessel availability and turning the surplus back into a shortage.

Analysis by Zane Amundsen, Windward MIOC Middle East Desk Lead. Reviewed by Matthew Mueller, Windward MIOC U.S. Team Lead