September 17, 2026
77 Ships Blacklisted, None Deterred: Inside Iran's Failing Hormuz Toll Regime
Europe threat map
What’s inside?
From Brexit, to refugees, to spillovers from the Syrian and Libyan civil wars – there’s plenty to keep Europeans up at night. And these are just the things we can see. What about the stuff we can’t?
The second edition of our European Threat Map reveals some of the anomalies found when applying AI-driven, behavioral analysis to vessels, enabling organizations – such as Frontex and Italy’s Guardia di Finanza – to anticipate threats, and stay ahead of their adversaries.
Amid the drug smuggling, human trafficking and sanctions evasion detected, there are a number of key findings, including:
- The Black Sea is significantly riskier than the Mediterranean; there are about three times as many “risky” vessels visiting the Black Sea vs the Med.
- Despite EU sanctions on Syria and Crimea, commercial shipping activities continue to take place in the waters around these territories, indicating probable sanction evasions.
- In Europe, Guernsey and Romania have the highest proportion of incorporated companies whose vessels display “risky” behavioral patterns.
- Over the previous year, 42 vessels displayed patterns of behavior similar to ships caught with drugs on board.
Stay tuned for threat maps for other parts of the world. For now, stay safe!
Download a PDF of the map
Featured posts
77 Ships Blacklisted, None Deterred: Inside Iran’s Failing Hormuz Toll Regime
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The Houthis Take Perim and Petroline Is Hit as Freight Rates Cross $1 Million a Day
At a Glance Operational Overview Saudi Arabia’s workaround to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz came under direct attack last week. Saudi Arabia diverted crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West pipeline. On September 10, a pumping station on the pipeline was attacked and preemptively shut down. On the…
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Subsea Cable Surveys Are Converging on the Same Behavioral Signature
At a Glance Four Vessels Worked Five Pacific Cable Systems Simultaneously Four Chinese state-owned research vessels conducted surveys directly above five Pacific cable systems this summer. Pacific Light Cable Network, Hawaiki, Bulikula, Honotua, and Juno. Each shows the same behavioral profile of sustained low speed, grid tracklines, and multi-day dwell in position, consistent with systematic…
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What Marine Underwriters Are Now Pricing Against
At a Glance Underwriting Is a Pricing Decision Made on Incomplete Data Underwriters carry the pricing decision at two moments in the coverage process. At binding, the underwriter takes compliance’s assessment of the vessel and its operating context, applies actuarial models and loss history, and sets premium and terms. At renewal, the underwriter takes the…
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Your Sanctions Audit Trail Has to Survive a Ten-Year Lookback
At a Glance OFAC Doubled the Retention Period in 2025 On March 12, 2025, OFAC’s extended recordkeeping requirement took effect, doubling the retention period for records of transactions subject to its regulations from five years to ten. The final rule followed an interim rule published in September 2024 and adopted it without change. The driver…
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Panama Canal Restrictions Are Landing on an Already Broken Chokepoint Map
At a Glance The Canal Is Cutting Capacity in the Wrong Season The Panama Canal Authority will run nine daily slots at the Neopanamax locks and 25 at the Panamax locks from September 4, averaging 34 transits per day. That falls again on September 15, when the limit drops to 32 ships. The canal had…
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