Security Worries Reshape Russia’s September Oil Exports

At a Glance

• Russia shipped 142.7 million barrels of crude and oil products in September, with crude holding steady at about 3.7 million barrels per day.
• No cargo was loaded on falsely flagged tankers for the third consecutive month, as tankers shifted to other flags and record numbers moved to the Russian flag.
• Sanctioned vessels carried 55% of all Russian oil and 63% of the crude, while EU-owned tankers carried 22%.
• EU-owned loadings fell 46% between the first and second halves of September, and nine in ten EU-owned barrels were loaded at Baltic ports.
• All Russian crude from Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis terminal moved on sanctioned ships as EU-owned tankers pulled back from the Black Sea.
• 33 cargoes totaling 11.6 million barrels went through at least one ship-to-ship transfer, and none of the five VLCCs carrying Russian crude loaded directly at a Russian terminal.
• Russia now flags 46 of the 101 sanctioned tankers tracked.

Russia Holds Crude Exports Steady as Falsely Flagged Tankers Disappear

Russia shipped 142.7 million barrels of crude, clean petroleum products (CPP) in September, according to Windward analysis using Vortexa data. Crude made up 110.4 million barrels, a pace of some 3.7 million barrels per day, broadly level with the prior month, which the IEA reported as 3.78 million bpd. CPP accounted for 14.9 million barrels, mostly naphtha (9.8 million), plus 17.4 million barrels of fuel oil and feedstocks.

For the third consecutive month, no cargo was loaded on falsely flagged tankers, confirming that Russia has discontinued their use. Tankers have shifted to other flags, with record numbers moving to Russia over the third quarter in what is one of the most significant developments seen for the shadow fleet since early 2023.

Sanctioned Tankers Carry More Than Half of Russia’s Oil

Sanctioned vessels carried 78 million barrels, 55% of the total, and 63% of the crude. EU-owned tankers carried 31.5 million barrels, which is 22%, and the remaining 23% moved on unsanctioned shadow fleet or other tonnage. The split varies sharply by product: EU-owned ships carried 57% of fuel oil and 41% of CPP, but only 14% of crude. This reflects the higher price of Urals, which is well above the $44.10 EU and UK price cap level.

EU-Owned Tankers Retreat to the Baltic and Pull Back Through September

Nine in ten EU-owned barrels (28.8 million of 31.5 million) were loaded at Baltic ports, including Primorsk, Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg and Vysotsk. There, EU-owned ships carried 37% of everything lifted. Elsewhere they barely featured, with 3% of Far East volumes and nothing on Arctic crude.

EU-owned loadings also fell through the month, from 20.5 million barrels in September 1–15 to 11.1 million in September 16–30, a drop of 46%. The steepest fall was in clean products, from 5.2 million to 1.0 million barrels, reflecting the ongoing export ban on gasoline and diesel following Ukraine attacks on refineries. On Baltic crude, dark-fleet volumes rose from 3.6 million to 5.6 million barrels in the second two weeks as EU-owned volumes fell.

Russia banned exports of gasoline in April, and introduced the first-ever bans on jet fuel in mid-June, with diesel following in mid-July and extended to September 30. Russia previously exported about half its diesel and gasoil, according to the IEA.

Sanctioned Ships Take Over Russia’s Black Sea Crude

68% of the 7.4 million barrels of Russian oil lifted from the Black Sea was on sanctioned tankers. All 4.3 million barrels of Russian crude, Urals and Siberian Light from Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis terminal, moved on sanctioned ships.

EU-owned tankers carried only diesel, with 1.2 million barrels in six cargoes on five medium-range tankers. None of them loaded after September 12, and later diesel cargoes went to sanctioned vessels. The deteriorating security in the area is seeing fewer EU-owned tankers willing to work in the area.

Sanctioned Tonnage Dominates Arctic and Far East Loadings

Arctic crude moves almost entirely on sanctioned tonnage, which carried 84% of Murmansk crude loadings. In the Far East, sanctioned ships carried 61% and unsanctioned shadow fleet tankers 32%. In Kozmino, 30 tankers loaded 33.4 million barrels of ESPO crude, most delivered to China.

Ship-to-Ship Transfers Obscure the Trail of 11.6 Million Barrels

Nakhodka Bay handled 8.7 million barrels via ship-to-ship transfer. Every barrel of Sokol crude loaded at De-Kastri (5.7 million) was transferred there. Two shuttle tankers owned by Sovcomflot handed cargoes to larger ships.

Port Said handled 2.3 million barrels, including almost half of the Russian crude loaded at Novorossiysk. Ceuta saw small naphtha parcels go through as many as three transfers, which makes their origin harder to trace.

33 September cargoes, totaling 11.6 million barrels, went through at least one ship-to-ship transfer.

Five VLCCs Load Russian Crude Without Calling at a Russian Terminal

Five VLCCs carried 8.5 million barrels of Russian crude, and none of them loaded directly at a Russian terminal. Four of the five, carrying 85% of the VLCC volume, are shadow fleet tankers that have not been sanctioned.

Russia Flags a Growing Share of the Sanctioned Fleet

The sanctioned fleet is increasingly Russian-flagged. Russia flags 46 of the 101 sanctioned tankers tracked.

55% of all Russian oil loaded in September went on sanctioned ships, totalling 78.0 million bbl. Meanwhile, 43% of that sanctioned volume was on Russian-flagged ships, making up 33.4 million bbl.

Sierra Leone, Cameroon, Oman, and Equatorial Guinea flagged most of the rest.

Written by Michelle Weise Bockmann, Windward MIOC Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst.