Greek Shipowners Fill Russia’s Tonnage Void to Blunt Sanctions Impact

European-owned vessels are now exporting nearly 40% of all Russian oil.

This not only blunts the impact of sanctions on Russia but introduces new trade patterns that require greater risk management for marine service providers, including insurers and charterers.

Windward analysis of June tanker activity shows that 37% of Russian-origin crude and refined products were shipped on Greek-owned vessels.

The previous month, UK and EU regulators had sanctioned nearly 300 Russia-trading ships for facilitating oil sales that fund the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, or for engaging in irregular and high-risk shipping practices.

Based on data compiled from Windward’s Maritime AI™ Platform and Vortexa’s commodities tracking data, despite the high-profile crackdown, Greece-owned ships legally transported 7.8 million tonnes out of the total 22.2 million tonnes of Russia-origin crude, fuel oil, and refined products exported from the federation in June.

Falling Prices, Rising Exposure

Greece’s largest shipowners have expanded their presence in the Russian market in recent months, taking advantage of lower crude prices to extend their operations in the region. This influx adds fresh tonnage to Russian trades, even as UK and EU regulators work to restrict other vessels.

The UK banned 232 tankers and gas carriers and the EU a further 393 over the past 12 months while the US targeted 160 tankers in January, Windward data show.

Many of these tankers have continued trading undeterred by sanctions. At the same time, more Greece-owned ships are calling in Russia, as the oil price has fallen below the $60-per-barrel cap.

Under the G7 oil price cap imposed in December 2022, Western marine service providers — including shipowners, charterers, insurers, and oil traders — are allowed to ship to third countries only if the oil was sold below $60 per barrel.

The average price of Urals crude, Russia’s main export grade, was $58.62 per barrel in June, according to price reporting agency Argus Media. ESPO grades, shipped from Kozmino on Russia’s eastern seaboard, were priced higher at $63 per barrel.

This is the fifth consecutive month Urals price has averaged below the cap.

The falling oil price presents a dilemma for regulators, especially as EU proposals to lower the crude oil price cap to $45 per barrel appear to have stalled.

Sanctions Compliance Risks Remain High

• Windward Maritime AI™ data shows that 65% of tankers tracked shipping Russian oil carried a high sanctions compliance risk. 24% of these vessels were sanctioned, accounting for 29% of the oil shipped in June.
• Greece-owned tankers shipped 41% of all Urals crude and 43% of Russian clean products. All cargoes were priced below the caps — $60 per barrel for crude and $100 per barrel for refined products — according to Argus Media price assessments.
• Tankers classified as ‘dark’ and/or ‘high risk’ by Windward, and subject to Western sanctions, lifted 30% of all Russian oil in June. Many of these vessels transported non-price-cap-compliant Russian oil grades from Arctic and eastern Russian ports to China and India, with prices exceeding the $60 cap.

The Sanctions Gap Is Widening. Who Will Step In?

This new trading pattern demands a deeper understanding of the evolving risk and compliance landscape in Russia for regulators, governments, and marine service providers involved with ships operating in the region.

Adding to the challenges, not all sanctions are enforced equally. US-sanctioned ships are typically restricted to Russia-China routes, while EU- and UK-banned vessels are more likely to continue trading beyond China, reaching destinations in India and Latin America.

How many more Western marine service providers will return to Russia trading while oil prices remain low? And how will this emerging risk be assessed and managed?