Guide for Governments: Protecting Critical Undersea Infrastructure

The need for heightened security has never been more pressing. A noticeable rise in attacks on undersea cables has alarmed policymakers and industry leaders alike in recent years. These incidents, often occurring in politically sensitive regions, such as the Baltic Sea and the South China Sea, serve as stark reminders of how vital these hidden networks are. With submarine cables transmitting a huge percentage of international data, their role in ensuring communication, financial transactions, and industrial operations cannot be overstated.

As geopolitical competition intensifies, adversaries have begun shifting their focus from traditional military targets to more covert forms of disruption. This shift has placed critical infrastructure at the center of modern warfare, making it more imperative than ever for governments to prioritize its defense. 

Unfortunately, a lack of suitable technology – until recently – combined with an absence of comprehensive regulation governing undersea assets in international waters has only exacerbated the problem, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation by malicious actors.

The task of protecting undersea infrastructure is daunting. Spanning more than 1.4 million kilometers across vast and remote oceanic regions, these cables and pipelines are difficult to monitor and even more difficult to defend. Unlike their terrestrial counterparts, undersea cables are left largely unshielded on the ocean floor, making them susceptible to both accidental damage and deliberate attacks.

Adding to the complexity is the rapid advancement of seabed mapping technology. Once protected by obscurity, the precise locations of undersea cables are now increasingly accessible, putting them at greater risk. Governments and agencies must adopt more sophisticated methods to detect, anticipate, and respond to potential threats before they materialize.

Complicating matters further is the clandestine nature of underwater threats. Many recent incidents have involved merchant vessels linked to shadow fleets, groups that operate in murky legal waters, evading scrutiny while potentially engaging in smuggling and/or sabotage. The lack of clear forensic evidence in these cases allows perpetrators to operate with plausible deniability, making attribution – and by extension, deterrence – a formidable challenge.

These vessels, frequently engaged in sanctions evasion or clandestine intelligence gathering, have been implicated in acts of undersea sabotage.

Shadow fleet vessels often display deceptive maritime behaviors, including prolonged dark activity, frequent changes in AIS identifiers, and loitering near critical infrastructure sites. Their ability to operate in legal gray zones makes them difficult to track and even harder to hold accountable. Detecting and monitoring these vessels requires an advanced analytical approach, integrating multiple data sources to discern suspicious patterns.

Understanding and identifying illicit maritime behaviors is key to preempting and mitigating threats. Vessels engaged in undersea sabotage often exhibit distinct operational patterns, including:

• Dark activity: the disabling of AIS transponders to avoid detection, often occurring near sensitive maritime assets.
• Slow-speed sailing and drifting: prolonged stationary positions near infrastructure hubs may indicate reconnaissance or preparatory activities.
• Repeated area visits: vessels appearing frequently in high-risk locations can signal potential involvement in infrastructure interference.
• Erratic route changes: sudden and unusual alterations in sailing paths may indicate an attempt to evade surveillance or prepare for illicit operations.
• Illicit actor grouping: the sudden clustering of many flagged vessels near underwater cables

An AI-powered solution can enable real-time detection of these behavioral anomalies. By continuously monitoring high-risk maritime zones and flagging vessels that fit suspicious profiles, governments can respond swiftly to potential threats.

A robust protection strategy must be built around cutting-edge technological capabilities that provide early threat detection, real-time monitoring, and rapid response capabilities.

AI-Driven Risk Assessment and Monitoring

By leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning, agencies can analyze vast amounts of maritime data to detect suspicious behavior in real time. AI-powered risk assessment tools can flag anomalies, identify high-risk vessels, and correlate historical patterns with current activity. 

Automated alerts ensure that decision-makers receive timely insights into potential threats, allowing for proactive intervention.

Real-Time Surveillance and Situational Awareness

An effective maritime security solution integrates automatic identification system (AIS) tracking and satellite imagery. Combining these data sources enables comprehensive maritime domain awareness, ensuring that any unauthorized vessel movements near critical infrastructure can be detected and analyzed promptly.

Automated Behavioral Analysis for Threat Detection

A next-generation protection strategy must include automated vessel behavioral analysis to distinguish between routine maritime activity and suspicious operations. Advanced behavioral modeling can identify vessels that exhibit erratic movements, prolonged dark activity, or unusual patterns consistent with sabotage attempts.

Multi-Agency Intelligence Sharing and Coordination

Collaboration among government agencies, international alliances, and private stakeholders is critical. Secure data-sharing platforms should facilitate real-time intelligence exchange, ensuring that all relevant entities can work together to protect critical undersea infrastructure. Initiatives like NATO’s Maritime Centre for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure and the Baltic Sentry Initiative exemplify the importance of coordinated defense efforts.

Windward’s Critical Maritime Infrastructure Protection solution uniquely provides real-time protection around exact cable locations, a best-in-industry list of suspicious vessels, and advanced behavioral pattern detection, effectively identifying and mitigating threats to prevent incidents.

As undersea infrastructure becomes an increasingly attractive target for adversaries, governments must embrace a proactive and technologically advanced approach to its protection. 

By deploying AI-powered risk assessment tools, enhancing real-time monitoring capabilities, leveraging automated behavioral analytics, and fostering international collaboration, agencies can mitigate threats and safeguard the stability of global communications and economic security. The challenge is immense, but with the right technologies in place, it is one that can be effectively addressed.