Which Flag did the UAE Ban for its Shadow Fleet Connection? Weekly Roundup

Here’s what you need to know: 

• A certain flag was banned by the UAE for a shadow fleet connection. Seventeen tankers switched to this flag since the start of 2023. 
• Russian grain smuggling continues: there was a 188% increasein dark activities conducted in the Mediterranean offloading area by vessels previously conducting dark activities in the Black Sea loading area from March-July 2024
  • The breakdown by vessel flag

UAE Bans Eswatini-Flagged Vessels over Shadow Fleet Connection

Public sources reported that sanctioned vessels related to Russia’s oil trade switched to the flag of landlocked Eswatini (formerly known as Swaziland) in May 2024,  to avoid price cap breach detection. Windward’s Maritime AI platform™ shows that 17 tankers switched to the flag of Eswatini since the start of 2023, with most of the changes occurring in May 2024.

_{Tankers conducted MMSI changes indicating reflagging to the flag of Eswatini, January 2023-July 2024.}

• More recently, the United Arab Emirates banned vessels arriving with the Eswatini flag from entering UAE ports, signaling further restrictions on the shadow fleet carrying Russian oil.

• Windward data shows a 900% increase in the monthly average of port calls by Eswatini-flagged tankers in the UAE from January-July 2023 versus the same months in 2024. Most of this increase occurred during June and July of 2024. The data matches the increase in reflagging to the Eswatini flag shown above and might suggest that these vessels were able to operate in the UAE due to the flag change.

_{Port calls by Eswatini-flagged tankers in the United Arab Emirates, January 2023-July 2024.}

Russian Grain Smuggling from Ukraine

• Public sources have reported on Russia’s alleged grain smuggling from the Crimean Peninsula and its sale to third-party stakeholders since October 2022, mostly around the Kerch Strait.
• More recently, the Ukrainian security services seized the USKO MFU (IMO: 7919781), a Cameroon-flagged and Turkish-owned 94-meter general cargo vessel, for alleged transportation of smuggled Ukrainian grain through the ports of Crimea. The vessel was intercepted in the port of Reni, Ukraine, on July 8, 2024. The vessel operated exclusively within the Black Sea near Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, between April-July 2024,  and conducted several dark activities that could be related to one of the grain smuggling patterns Windward identified years ago.

• Based on Windward data and one of our Russian grain smuggling typologies (cargo vessels conducting dark activities within the Black Sea followed by a dark activity in the Mediterranean Sea), there was a 188% increase in dark activities conducted in the Mediterranean offloading area by vessels previously conducting dark activities in the Black Sea loading area from March-July 2024.

_{Dark activities by cargo vessels in the offloading area in the Mediterranean after conducting dark activities in the Black Sea grain smuggling area, August 2022-July 2024.} 

• Windward AI-powered insights illustrate that the majority of vessels that followed this typology are sailing under the flags of Russia (14%) and Panama (13%); Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Sierra Leone (9% each); Palau (8%) and Comoros (7%); and Tanzania and Comoros (5% each). The data matches the public sources, showing that while most vessels that are conducting these activities are Russian-flagged, there are also blacklisted flagged vessels and vessels using flags of convenience.