January 7, 2026
Maritime Defense Weekly: U.S. Intervention in Venezuela and Maritime Risk
An Iranian-Linked Tanker Fleet Is Operating Off the U.S. Coast Right Now
What’s inside?
At a Glance
- Windward identified 116 vessels conducting 130+ area visits to the Caribbean Sea over the past 30 days.
- Every vessel is linked to Iran, Russia, or Venezuela, with many carrying multiple risk associations.
- 19 vessels are sanctioned, while 81 are high-risk, and 16 are moderate-risk.
- Of the 116 vessels, 14 are flying fraudulent flags.
- The pattern of repeated Caribbean activity by sanctioned and high-risk tankers, including vessels using fraudulent flags, creates a direct challenge for maritime attribution, enforcement prioritization, and sanctions execution near U.S. waters.
What the Data Shows
Over the past month, Windward detected an unusual concentration of tankers in and around the Caribbean Sea with elevated sanctions and compliance risk.
In Q4 2024, WIndward recorded 119 area visits by vessels with similar risk profiles. In Q4 2025 to date, that number has already reached 233, a 95% increase year-over-year. The growth reflects not just higher traffic volume, but repeated regional presence by vessels carrying overlapping risk associations tied to Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
December activity so far appears lower compared to December last year. While it’s too early to draw conclusions, this timing coincides with the U.S. seizure of the Iran-linked tanker Skipper, and warrants close monitoring as the month progresses.
| Windward Risk Category | Vessel Count |
|---|---|
| Sanctioned | 19 |
| High Risk | 81 |
| Moderate Risk | 16 |
The most common flags among these vessels, the Marshall Islands, Panama, and Malta, also appear widely in legitimate global tanker traffic. However, the presence of 14 vessels currently flying fraudulent flags points to deliberate identity concealment within this activity set.
Why This Matters
The Caribbean Sea sits adjacent to U.S. territorial waters and within U.S. enforcement reach. It is a critical corridor for energy flows, refined products, and regional trade.
This is not about a single vessel or isolated transit. It is about the density and recurrence of visits by tankers carrying stacked risk indicators, sanctioned status, high-risk behavioral patterns, and fraudulent identities, all operating in close proximity to U.S. interests.
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