Tensions are escalating in the Middle East, casting uncertainty over Iran’s oil exports. Recent tanker movements in Iranian waters vividly underscore the turmoil disrupting regional operations. On June 15, Windward revealed over 700 recorded instances of slow-speed and anchoring activities by tankers within Iran’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — nearly double the count from just...
Fighting is intensifying in the Middle East, and the effects on maritime operations are becoming impossible to ignore. On the water, we’re seeing a clear shift: technical disruptions are rising, with a new UKMTO advisory warning of AIS spoofing, extreme GPS jamming, and compromised gyro compasses in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Arabian...
Tensions are escalating in the Middle East, casting uncertainty over Iran’s oil exports. Recent tanker movements in Iranian waters vividly underscore the turmoil disrupting regional operations. On June 15, Windward revealed over 700 recorded instances of slow-speed and anchoring activities by tankers within Iran’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — nearly double the count from just two days earlier, coinciding precisely with the outbreak of regional conflict. This surge may reflect stakeholders adopting a cautious approach amid increasingly volatile conditions, or it might stem from intensified GPS jamming incidents in the area (more details below).
GPS jamming interferes with vessel AIS signal while sailing to Saudi Arabia. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
Multiple Tanker Classes Affected
This rise in slow-moving tankers isn’t limited to one type of cargo. Crude oil tankers account for 28% of affected vessels, while oil product tankers comprise 23%, and LPG tankers 11%. Moreover, only 180 of the vessels either at anchor or operating at significantly reduced speeds on June 15 were Iran-linked vessels, with the rest flying various Western-affiliated flags such as Marshall Islands, Liberia, Greece and Malta.
Escalating Electronic Warfare Adds to Uncertainty
As mentioned, The UK Maritime Trade Office (UKMTO) has warned of rising disruptions to GPS and automatic identification systems (AIS), especially concentrated in the critical waters of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Windward has identified that since Thursday, 928 vessels — including 110 cargo ships and 97 tankers — experienced GPS jamming near key Iranian oil and gas terminals around Asaluyeh.
GPS Jamming patterns near Asaluyeh. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
“The levels and intensity inside the Gulf are significantly impacting vessels’ positional reporting through automated systems,” warned UKMTO, urging ship operators to maintain high vigilance and promptly report interference incidents.
Impact Felt in Freight Rates and Insurance Premiums
The growing uncertainty has prompted many shipowners to adopt a cautious stance, pulling vessels out of the Middle East Gulf routes and significantly slowing chartering activities. Consequently, freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) — critical vessels moving oil from the Middle East Gulf to Asia — rose sharply by 23% on Friday and remain elevated due to ongoing uncertainties.
Insurance markets have responded dramatically as well, with war risk premiums potentially adding an extra $3–$8 per barrel if ports become targets of direct attacks.
High-Stakes at the Strait of Hormuz
Despite the critical Strait of Hormuz remaining open — this vital passageway facilitates about one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade — the risk profile of maritime operations in the region has intensified significantly. The situation underlines not just immediate disruptions but broader geopolitical instability, highlighting the vulnerabilities inherent in one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints.
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