Enforcement Shock Accelerates Dark Fleet Reflagging to Russia

At a Glance

• Western interdictions of falsely flagged tankers are accelerating a shift toward Russia’s registry.
• At least 120 sanctioned tankers now fit the profile of vessels already reflagging to Russia.
• Reflagging restores flag-state protection for ships that had become effectively stateless.
• The result is tighter Russian control over oil export logistics and fewer enforcement leverage points.

A Structural Shift in Russia’s Shadow Fleet 

At least 120 falsely flagged, sanctioned tankers are likely to reflag to Russia’s registry in the coming months, as Western interdictions of stateless shadow fleet vessels accelerates a structural shift in Russia’s oil export logistics.

All ships fit the profile and trading pattern of tankers that have already switched to Russia’s flag following a governance crackdown and nine interdictions of sanctioned, stateless vessels in just over eight weeks.

Reflagging as a Response to Enforcement Pressure 

Nearly 70 dark fleet tankers have been tracked by Windward broadcasting Russia as their new flag since May 2025, including 40 since the boarding, seizure, or detention of falsely flagged ships by the U.S., UK, and France began in December.

At least three vessels – Akkord (IMO 9259599), Saga (IMO 9318553), and Topaz (IMO 9292034) – switched to Russia’s flag from fraudulent registries last week alone.

Ships trading under fraudulent registries lack flag-state protection, making them subject to boarding under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Seas. 

Throughout 2025, more than 300 shadow fleet tankers involved in sanctioned Iranian, Venezuelan, or Russian oil trades shifted to fraudulent flags, often after repeated flag hopping.

These vessels were subsequently deregistered by permissive registries, including Gabon, Cook Islands, Barbados, Comoros, and Gambia, after sustained pressure to remove Western-sanctioned tonnage, leaving many ships effectively stateless.

This left the tankers vulnerable at sea. Reflagging to Russia, which is often the only registry willing to accept them, restores legal protection under international maritime law, at least for now.

Enforcement Pressure Drives Structural Shift

The trend toward reflagging to Russia is expected to accelerate if governments, including the U.S., maintain pressure and continue interdicting falsely flagged vessels. 

The most recent interdiction, on February 9, saw U.S. commandos board the runaway Suezmax tanker Aquila II (IMO 9281152) in the Indian Ocean. This marked the eighth U.S. interdiction related to Venezuela, and the ninth overall since December. 

Windward data shows approximately 120 Russia-trading tankers over 180 meters in length broadcasting flags from 19 fraudulent registries, including Botswana, Guyana, Guinea, and Madagascar. These vessels are part of the more than 650 tankers sanctioned for evading Russia-related measures and have been under close surveillance while sailing to and from Russian Baltic ports over the past two years.

A joint statement issued on January 26 by multiple coastal governments warned of increased action against vessels without nationality or valid documentation, reinforcing the growing enforcement risk of stateless ships.

Russia Tightens Control Over Export Logistics 

Roughly half of the reflagged tankers are beneficially owned by Sovcomflot, Russia’s government-controlled shipping company, which operates a fleet of around 110 tankers, including LNG carriers.

Before February 2022, Sovcomflot flagged about one-third of its fleet in Russia, relying on open registries for the remainder.  That figure has now risen to 56%. Nearly 30 Sovcomflot-owned tankers have reflagged and returned to Russia in the past 10 months.

The same pattern is visible across other shadow fleet vessels not beneficially owned by Sovcomflot, many of which were acquired by anonymous, untraceable entities specifically for sanctions evasion. 

As a result, there are now just over 100 Russian-flagged tankers above 50,000 dwt, nearly double the numbers seen 12 months ago. The shift has tightened Russia’s control over its export logistics chain and reduced false-flag transits through the Baltic, Mediterranean, and English Channel. 

Meanwhile, at least 24 falsely flagged tankers were tracked transiting the Baltic in the past four months, and at least a dozen were quarantined in Venezuela under U.S. measures imposed since late November.