March 24, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily

At a Glance

• Maritime activity remains constrained but active, with vessel movements continuing under controlled routing patterns.
• Transit through Hormuz remains limited and permission-based, with vessels following a defined northern corridor.
• Iranian naval mine deployment introduces a new, largely invisible risk layer to commercial shipping.
• Gulf vessel presence has increased, reflecting continued operations despite disruption and elevated threat levels.
• Iranian crude exports remain elevated, with volumes increasing under temporary sanctions relief and flows concentrated toward China.
• Russian oil volumes remain high, though infrastructure strikes are introducing growing forward supply risk.
• Port activity reflects continued rerouting and destination changes, particularly across UAE and Omani hubs.
• Maritime operations are increasingly defined by a combination of controlled access and escalating security risk.

Operational Overview 

Maritime activity in and around the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained but increasingly structured, as vessel movements continue under controlled routing patterns and elevated threat conditions. On March 23, limited transit activity was observed, with vessels routing north of Larak Island, reinforcing the emergence of a managed corridor rather than open commercial passage.

At the same time, the threat environment is escalating. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the presence of Iranian naval mines within the Strait, introducing a persistent and largely invisible risk to maritime operations. While diplomatic signals suggest potential de-escalation, the physical risk to vessels transiting the waterway remains acute.

Across the Gulf, vessel presence increased to 681 AIS-transmitting foreign vessels, reflecting continued operational activity despite disruption. Energy flows remain elevated, with both Iranian and Russian crude volumes sustained under temporary sanctions frameworks, even as infrastructure strikes and supply constraints introduce growing instability.

Taken together, maritime operations are now defined by a dual dynamic: constrained but ongoing commercial activity, operating within an increasingly militarized and risk-intensive environment.

Strait of Hormuz Under Controlled Transit and Escalating Threat

Transit activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited and tightly controlled. On March 23, five AIS-transmitting vessels were recorded transiting the Strait, including four outbound and one inbound movement. All vessels followed a northern routing pattern above Larak Island, consistent with previously observed controlled corridor behavior.

The outbound vessels included three tankers, two India-flagged LPG carriers, and one Panama-flagged tanker, alongside a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo vessel. The inbound vessel was a Comoros-flagged tanker. Notably, both Indian-flagged LPG carriers explicitly signaled “Indian Ship Indian Crew” in their AIS transmissions, reinforcing the pattern of vessels broadcasting identity markers aligned with approved transit conditions.

At the same time, the security environment within the Strait is deteriorating. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the deployment of multiple Iranian naval mines within the waterway, including both moored and limpet-style devices designed to evade detection and target passing vessels. These systems rely on magnetic and acoustic triggers, allowing activation without direct contact and significantly increasing the risk to commercial shipping.

This introduces a persistent sub-surface threat layer to an already constrained operating environment, where vessels are navigating not only geopolitical restrictions, but also potential kinetic hazards embedded within key transit lanes.

Gulf Vessel Presence Overview

AIS-transmitting foreign vessel activity in the Arabian Gulf increased to 681 vessels, representing a net increase of 72 vessels compared to the previous day. This includes 396 cargo vessels and 285 tankers.

Breakdown by vessel subclass:

• Bulk carriers: 157 vessels.
• Crude oil tankers: 75 vessels.
• Oil products tankers: 73 vessels.
• Container vessels: 44 vessels.
• LNG and LPG carriers: 38 vessels.
• Other vessel types: 294 vessels.

Top flag registries (excluding Gulf states):

• Panama: 124 vessels.
• Liberia: 81 vessels.
• Marshall Islands: 72 vessels.
• Comoros: 52 vessels.
• Saint Kitts and Nevis: 29 vessels.
• Singapore: 25 vessels.
• Hong Kong: 19 vessels.
• Barbados: 17 vessels.
• Togo: 17 vessels.
• Malta: 16 vessels.

Top company locations by vessel presence:

• Marshall Islands: 122 vessels.
• Greece: 79 vessels.
• China: 80 vessels.
• Singapore: 46 vessels.
• Liberia: 49 vessels.

This distribution highlights continued global participation in Gulf operations despite persistent disruption and elevated risk, reinforcing that commercial activity has not paused, but is adapting under constraint.

Vessel Activity Trends

Vessel activity indicators continue to reflect shifting operational behavior across the Gulf over the past three days:

Overall, the data points to a system adjusting in real time, balancing movement with caution in a constrained and uncertain operating environment.

Iranian Crude Export Activity

As of March 23, approximately 163 million barrels of Iranian oil were on the water, reflecting a continued increase of 2 million barrels since March 21, under OFAC General License U, which authorizes the sale of Iranian crude already loaded at sea through April 19 in order to stabilize global energy markets.

On March 22, approximately 2 million barrels were loaded and departed from Iran, carried by a sanctioned 330-meter VLCC from Kharg Island. No additional loadings were recorded on March 23.

The primary destination remains China, receiving over 90% of Iranian crude exports, with more than 150 million barrels currently bound for its ports.

These patterns reinforce the continuity of Iranian export flows despite disruption, supported by sanctions flexibility and sustained on-water volumes.

Russian Oil Flows and Infrastructure Disruption

Russian oil volumes remain elevated, with approximately 154 million barrels on the water under OFAC General License 134, which allows the delivery of previously loaded cargoes through April 11.

As of March 23, India has overtaken China as the primary destination for Russian crude shipments, marking a shift in short-term flow dynamics.

At the same time, export capacity is under increasing pressure. Oil export operations at Primorsk and Ust-Luga have been suspended following Ukrainian strikes, with Remote Sensing Intelligence indicating significant infrastructure damage, including multiple oil storage tanks.

Prior to the disruption, approximately 43 million barrels had been loaded from these ports since March 1, with an additional 67 million barrels currently on the water originating from these terminals.

AIS data shows 12 tankers currently stationed at the ports, while 61 additional vessels are en route. Notably, vessels at the terminals are not transmitting AIS, likely as a countermeasure to reduce targeting risk.

These developments highlight a growing divergence between sustained flows and weakening infrastructure, introducing increasing uncertainty into forward supply.

Port Operations Disruptions

Port activity across the region continues to reflect operational volatility, with increased reliance on rerouting and destination changes as vessels adapt to disruption in primary transit corridors.

Inside the Gulf

Jebel Ali, UAE:

• 9 transshipment rollovers (0-baseline from the previous day, +320% vs 7-day average).
• 10 transshipment-delay cases (+42.86% from the previous day, +250% vs 7-day average).

Outside the Gulf

Khor Fakkan, UAE:

• 67 port-of-destination changes (0-baseline from the previous day, +202.58% vs 7-day average).

Salalah, Oman:

• 36 port-of-destination changes (+800% from the previous day, +313.11% vs 7-day average).

Sohar, Oman:

• 8 port-of-destination changes (0-baseline from the previous day, +1766.67% vs 7-day average).

These patterns highlight a system operating under constant recalibration, where routing decisions are being made dynamically rather than according to fixed schedules.

Outlook

The maritime system remains operational, but increasingly defined by control, constraint, and rising security risk.

Transit through Hormuz continues under a managed corridor model, rather than open commercial access, while the introduction of naval mines adds a new layer of uncertainty that is difficult to detect and mitigate in real time.

Energy flows remain sustained for now, supported by sanctions flexibility and on-water volumes, but infrastructure vulnerability and continued disruption are beginning to introduce forward supply risk.

Absent a meaningful de-escalation, maritime operations are likely to remain constrained, with movement continuing under controlled routing conditions and elevated threat exposure across the region.