Before the Disruption Hits: Maritime Signals from a Middle East on Edge

Fighting is intensifying in the Middle East, and the effects on maritime operations are becoming impossible to ignore.

On the water, we’re seeing a clear shift: technical disruptions are rising, with a new UKMTO advisory warning of AIS spoofing, extreme GPS jamming, and compromised gyro compasses in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Arabian Gulf. 

At the same time, ship behavior is changing. Imagery reviewed by TankerTrackers.com shows a notable dispersion of Iranian tankers from anchorages at Kharg Island and Assaluyeh. While crude and fuel oil exports continue, non-essential empty tankers are quietly moving away from key terminals. These movements echo past regional flare-ups — subtle, but telling signs of internal threat recalibration. Other tankers and shipowners are adjusting too, showing increasing caution in route planning.

With Iranian vessels repositioning, electronic navigation systems under strain, and fresh advisories on the table, operators are beginning to pull back. The Strait of Hormuz may remain technically open, but collectively, these developments suggest shipping could be headed into yet another crisis — even as the Red Sea and Russia-related risks remain at a high.

ֿNumber of Vessels Anchoring in Omani Waters Doubles

A sharp rise in anchorage activity in Omani waters has been recorded by Windward’s Maritime AI™ system. The number of general cargo vessels anchored in the region doubled over the past seven days, rising to an all-time high of 15. The weekly median is just six.

This increase reflects how quickly risk is recalibrated: vessels are pausing to await updates or rerouting decisions, especially in high-sensitivity regions close to the Strait and conflict zones. So while the strait is still officially open, stakeholders are being cautious in entering the new war zone.

Red Sea Tankers Go Dark as Fears of Houthi Attacks Resurface

In the Red Sea, tanker dark activity has reached a record high. Eighty-five tankers turned off AIS transponders in the week ending June 15 — a 32.5% spike over expectations and the highest number recorded to date.

This surge follows renewed concerns over potential Houthi attacks and increasing uncertainty about the durability of the US-Houthi ceasefire announced on May 6. While no direct attacks on commercial vessels have occurred in over six months, the combination of escalating Iran-Israel tensions and historical precedent is fueling growing unease. Many of the tankers currently in transit likely departed before June 13 — without charterparty clauses that would allow for rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.

What Comes Next?

The consensus seems to be that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open. But if risks to Western-affiliated vessels escalate, avoidance behavior may increase — and not just from vessel operators. Will shipowners and charters have to re-think their risk assessment strategies?

Commercial organizations may also be forced to adopt proactive security screening protocols as standard. Meanwhile, how will the increasing tensions affect insurance and premium costs? Will the EU go through with proposals to lower the oil price cap on Russian crude exports if geopolitical conflict keeps global oil prices elevated? And will exports from alternative suppliers of heavy sour crude outside the Middle East Gulf — such as Mexico, Brazil, or Colombia — increase as vessels grow more hesitant to transit the region? 

The answers may depend less on official statements — and more on how the market continues to read between the lines, monitor vessel behavior, and price in the risks yet to be formally acknowledged.