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At a Glance Behavior With No Commercial Explanation The signature is consistent across multiple vessels in different parts of European waters. A tanker arcs off its expected route. It loiters above a cable system, sometimes for hours, sometimes for days. Its AIS goes dark for long enough to obscure precise positioning but short enough to…

At a Glance The Sanctions Package Unpacked The UK government on June 16 announced its latest sanctions package targeting what it described as the “shady networks” supplying Russia’s war effort. The package designates 27 tankers, a Russian state-linked technology procurement network, and third-country suppliers facilitating illegal money movement on Russia’s behalf. With this round, the…

At a Glance Operational Overview The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but cautiously. Thirty-six hours after the U.S. and Iran agreed to end the conflict in the strait, stranded ships have started their engines, but few have sailed. The contrast with the brief mid-April false start is shaping shipowner behavior this time. The agreement is…

At a Glance Operational Overview The Strait of Hormuz remained under acute operational pressure between June 11 and June 14. AIS-visible commercial traffic stayed near zero, IRGC small-craft activity surged, and covert export infrastructure continued functioning despite sustained U.S. enforcement. The most immediate signal is the collapse in visible movement. Only one AIS crossing was…