Reports
Tracking Down Dhows – 2 Techniques to Detect Smuggling
To increase effectiveness, two steps can be taken.
- Build a profile to narrow down results even further.
- Apply Windward’s predictive behavior risk models, which can identify vessels that are more likely involved in smuggling events.
Using Windward’s unique Sequence Search capability, we built a sequence consisting of:
- Vessels that conducted dark activity inside an area of interest (in this case, the Persian Gulf)
- After the dark activity ended (while still in the Persian Gulf), the vessel slowed down its speed inside Somalia’s territorial waters.
As image 2 shows, this sequence search yields 129 vessels – a far more manageable number of leads compared to the nearly 700 before, but still not sufficiently narrowed.
It was time for Windward’s predictive AI models to come into play. The ability to identify vessels likely involved in illicit activity is built into Windward’s system. By refining the search even further, to only show vessels marked for high risk of smuggling (of a variety of available risk types), we moved from 700 vessels to only a handful – 15 vessels, to be exact.
The search also reveals where most of the nefarious activity is taking place inside Somalia’s territorial waters. Based on the results (as seen in image 3 below), we can immediately deduce that the Horn of Africa, close to the port of Bosaso, is where most of the illicit activity likely takes place.
With this information, planning the mission becomes data-driven, with a clear and defined target area for deployment and further examination.
As image 4 above shows, the vessel went dark inside the Persian Gulf for 430 hours (nearly 19 days). Its prolonged period of dark activity was followed by slow-speed activity inside Somalia’s territorial waters.
For context, it is important to look at the vessel’s behavioral patterns before this sequence of activities. Using Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform, we can examine the vessel’s entire voyage. On February 20, 2024, it turned off its transponder after leaving the UAE, beginning a dark activity period of 17 days. This was followed by port calls in Pakistan and India, and, finally, a stop in Bosaso.
Except for turning off its AIS transmission outside the Persian Gulf, the vessel did not seem to be behaving in a way that raised suspicion. But the benefit of this approach is that it can be used to prompt a tipping and cueing process. To gain more insight into the vessel’s behavior, we can bring satellite images to an area where we know the vessel conducted an unusual loitering event. This is to see if the ship met other vessels during this time:
Looking at the next image (image 6, below), we see two vessels. The first, our target vessel, is transmitting. But there is also a smaller, non-transmitting ship next to it: a traditional dhow, a 40-meter-long vessel.
It is not possible to know for certain that these vessels were engaged in contraband smuggling during their meeting. Yet the meeting between two vessels, one non-transmitting and the other at high risk for smuggling after it had just conducted a suspicious pattern of activities, is certainly reason enough to deploy assets for further examination.
An analysis of this trend reveals the following:
- Using Sequence Search to go back a year (May 2023-May 2024), we only began to see this pattern of activity emerging after October 7, 2023 – with the first event taking place in November 2023.
- The vessels engaging in this pattern of behavior are general cargo vessels flying flags of convenience (except for one vessel Togo-flagged vessel, all other vessels fly the Palau flag). They either turn off their AIS tracking system or conduct course deviations in the Persian Gulf/Iran before engaging in ship-to-ship operations with traditional dhows near Bosaso.
- Most vessels detected conducting ship-to-ship operations near Bosaso with non-transmitting vessels, likely dhows, simply sailed from the port of Kandala in India to Bossaso. We identified three variants of this pattern:
- 1. Ships turning off their AIS in the Persian Gulf for a long time (possibly loading cargo during a dark STS), then conducting slow-speed activity near the Bosaso port in Somalia, where they engaged in an STS with a non-transmitting dhow.
- 2. Ships conducting a route deviation, another indication of a dark STS operation in the Persian Gulf. Image 11 (above) shows one vessel conducting a dark STS meeting in Iran following a route deviation (April 20, 2024), possibly to load, and then another dark STS meeting in Somalia (May 8, 2024), likely to unload.
- 3. Ships sailing from Kandla port in India followed by slow-speed activity in Somalia’s territorial waters.