The 9 Biggest Geopolitical and Security Trends This Year

Geopolitical instability and security threats are increasingly playing out at sea. From trade conflicts and chokepoint vulnerabilities, to hybrid warfare tactics and environmental shifts, government agencies face constant change and volatility. With 2025 off and running, the maritime domain remains a critical battleground where national security, economic stability, and global trade converge.

The traditional boundaries between sanctions enforcement and security operations are becoming increasingly blurred. To give one quick example, shadow fleets originally developed to evade trade restrictions occasionally engage in intelligence gathering and sabotage of undersea cables, raising geopolitical concerns outside of oil smuggling. 

With a new U.S. administration making bold moves, shifting alliances worldwide, and threatening new tariffs against multiple countries – and sometimes rescinding the threats; the Russia-Ukraine war raging on and creating new sanctions; the Houthis threatening to resume attacks; and much more, global uncertainty is now the only certainty.

Here are nine of the most pressing geopolitical and security trends that will preoccupy government agencies, traders and shippers, and supply chain/logistics organizations this year, and demand innovative thinking and solutions.

The resurgence of “America First” policies and protectionist measures is altering global trade, which also changes geopolitics. President Trump’s proposed and enacted tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian imports have triggered diplomatic and economic reactions, leading to retaliatory trade barriers. 

These policies could divert cargo flows away from traditional U.S. ports, increase operational costs for shipping companies, and drive consumer goods inflation. Some multi-national corporations are looking into shifting their supply chains in anticipation of trade disruptions, seeing Southeast Asia and Latin America as potential alternative manufacturing hubs. These adjustments take time, and in the short term, businesses will likely face delays, rising transportation costs, and regulatory uncertainty.

Countries frequently cement and maintain their connection via trade ties. The weakening of these ties inevitably undermines the relationship. A shift in traditional trade partners will likely cause ties to grow elsewhere, shifting the power dynamics.

Early indications of these shifts are often evident at sea. From March 2-9, for example, there was an anomalous increase in vessel meetings off Canada’s West Coast. Twenty vessels, all affiliated with companies in China, engaged in ship-to-ship operations. This was a 99% increase above the expected ten vessels – an all-time high! 

This unusual increase in ship-to-ship operations involving Chinese-affiliated vessels in Canadian waters indicates a surge in trade activities and is likely linked to recent tensions and tariff uncertainties between the U.S. and Canada. 

Windward’s Early Detection solution also flagged an increase in early-to-mid March of Chinese vessels visiting European exclusive economic zones (EEZs) – Belgium, the Netherlands, and France. 

The surge follows the U.S. Trade Representative’s February 21 proposal to implement substantial port entry fees of up to $1.5 million per vessel for Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports. This policy shift is the likely cause for Chinese vessels to redirect their vessels away from U.S. routes and seek alternative ports and shipping lanes in Europe. Yet another indication of the possible restructuring of global shipping patterns in response to evolving trade policies.

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain high, with China’s military drills near Taiwan escalating concerns of a potential invasion. A military confrontation would have severe consequences for maritime trade – nearly 50% of global container traffic passes through the South China Sea. 

If China were to enforce an exclusion zone or disrupt shipping lanes, the repercussions would extend far beyond regional actors, affecting supply chains worldwide. As China expands its maritime influence through artificial island bases and increased naval patrols, the potential for unintended clashes, or strategic blockades, grows.

Sanctions Split 

Sanctions against Russia continue to reshape global energy markets, but a split is developing. 

On the third anniversary of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, the U.S. chose to sanction the dark fleet of Iran. 

Not sanctioning Russia was a major departure for the Biden administration – the two previous anniversaries were marked by new U.S. sanctions announcements regarding Russia. President Trump is trying to negotiate a peace deal with President Putin and the United States joined Russia to vote against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s war in a huge shift in U.S. policy.

Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) ramped up pressure with a tough sanctions package on the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. 

The international pressure has prompted Russia to deepen its trade ties with nations such as China and India.

The strengthening of ties between Russia and these countries is supported by maritime data. The number of Russian-affiliated vessels – vessels marked by Windward as a Russia compliance risk – calling into Chinese ports has decreased consistently since February 2024, in line with increased scrutiny from Western regulators. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean that trade ties have weakened, but rather that they have moved under the radar. As the graph below shows, there was a substantial increase in dark activity by Chinese-owned vessels in the Baltic Sea in early July 2024.

Four high-profile incidents targeted critical maritime infrastructure between November 2024 and February 2025 alone! 

Undersea cables are the backbone of global communication and finance, transmitting over 99% of international data traffic. Gas and oil also flows through subterranean pipes. Despite their critical importance, these cables and pipes are increasingly at risk from sabotage, espionage, and accidental damage. 

The recent severing of Baltic Sea cables, suspected to be the work of Russian-affiliated vessels, has highlighted how vulnerable this infrastructure remains. Shadow fleet vessels have been observed loitering near undersea cables, raising alarms about their potential role in espionage and sabotage.

The security risks associated with undersea infrastructure are exacerbated by the lack of international regulations governing these assets. Unlike terrestrial infrastructure, which falls under national sovereignty, undersea cables cross international waters, creating jurisdictional challenges. Many government agencies are now turning to AI-powered risk detection and satellite surveillance to identify suspicious maritime behaviors that could indicate a threat to cable security.

A gray fleet vessel, sailing under the Panama flag and marked as moderate for smuggling and sanctions compliance risk, due to its Russian affiliation, displayed unusual behavior around the Mednautilus submarine system infrastructure, located in the Sea of Marmara. This included unusual loitering multiple times in February.

In light of increasing risks worldwide, governments are shifting efforts and resources to fund unmanned capabilities to enable surveillance and monitoring.

Manned assets – in the sea and air – have been the primary way to monitor maritime activities for decades. But these missions are inherently limited in scale and duration, due to concerns about safety and cost. The recent shift toward increasingly relying upon and utilizing unmanned systems (also frequently called “autonomous systems”) for maritime domain awareness (MDA) has been a natural response to overcoming the constraints and limited scalability of manned missions.

The global unmanned systems market size is expected to grow by 15.7% from 2023 to 2032. In 2022, the market’s size was projected to reach a valuation of $16.3 billion. The valuation is set to reach $34.16 billion by 2032.

The first step before deploying an asset, manned or unmanned, is to decide where to deploy it. How do you choose where to look in the expansive oceans? Pre-mission planning is often based on historical data – unmanned assets are deployed where illicit or threatening behavior has been known to happen before, or in known hubs of activity. The key word here is “known.” Deployment planning often falls into the trap of habit, rather than proactive operational planning meant to discover the unknown. 

As the number of deployed assets grows, data increases in parallel. First, there is more data about what is happening near and around these assets, and it is crucial to ensure the assets’ ongoing protection by constantly being aware of which vessels are approaching. 

Also, the reason to have more operational assets is to obtain better visibility into a wider area. This also means more data – more dots on the map at any given time. This is both the objective, but also the challenge – how do you transform data into information, information into knowledge, and knowledge into action? Learn more here. 

The fentanyl crisis continues to pose a significant security challenge, with maritime smuggling serving as a key transport route for synthetic opioids. Unlike traditional narcotics, fentanyl precursors are often legally shipped before being synthesized into highly potent drugs, making detection far more difficult. Smugglers exploit gaps in containerized shipping regulations, using deceptive shipping practices to obscure illicit cargo.

In response, U.S. and international law enforcement agencies have increased efforts to track high-risk shipments. AI-driven analytics have proven effective in identifying anomalies in trade patterns that suggest smuggling activity. 

But the adaptability of trans-national criminal organizations means that enforcement efforts must remain dynamic, with agencies continually refining their methods to keep pace with evolving smuggling tactics.

The U.S. has pushed for increased cooperation with Mexico and Canada to intercept fentanyl precursors before they reach production facilities. Intelligence-sharing agreements and enhanced monitoring of suspicious maritime trade routes are becoming essential components of international counter-smuggling efforts.

Other types of drug smuggling are of course also a concern. A maritime drug bust back in 2024 was executed thanks to unique routing detection. 

The key risk indicators included recent course deviations, IMO discrepancy, and a weak ownership structure. The vessel had multiple ownership and management changes during the preceding years.

Maritime chokepoints –  such as the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz – are vulnerable and often crowded. Climate-induced droughts have significantly reduced the number of transits through the Panama Canal, forcing carriers to divert shipments across longer routes. These delays increased fuel costs, insurance premiums, and cargo transit times, creating ripple effects across global supply chains.

The maritime and supply chain ecosystems will be watching closely to see if the Houthis make good on their threat to resume attacks. 

Houthi militants launched over 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea since late 2023. This caused large numbers of vessels to avoid the Red Sea in favor of the Cape of Good Hope. The diversion added 10-14 days of sailing time, raising operational costs and disrupting just-in-time delivery models, particularly for industries reliant on predictable shipping schedules. 

These attacks resulted in severe economic disruptions, forcing multinational corporations to reevaluate their reliance on traditional shipping routes. 

The use of drone swarms, ballistic missiles, and undersea cable cutting (see our earlier section) signifies a shift toward hybrid maritime warfare, blending asymmetric tactics with traditional state-sponsored aggression. 

Unlike conventional naval engagements, these attacks are unpredictable, targeting civilian shipping infrastructure with military-grade weaponry.

The risk of escalation remains high. The U.S. and U.K. already conducted past strikes against Houthi strongholds, but a prolonged conflict could destabilize the broader Arabian Peninsula. 

Additionally, Iran’s support for the Houthis raises concerns about potential retaliatory measures in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for global energy exports. Intelligence-sharing and coordinated defense strategies are essential to mitigate the risks posed by these hybrid threats.

Hybrid threats often blur the lines between criminal and military operations, requiring an adaptive approach that integrates intelligence gathering, international cooperation, and tactical response measures. As non-state actors refine their asymmetric warfare tactics, government agencies must enhance their maritime domain awareness (MDA) to detect and respond to emerging threats in real time. 

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is no longer just an environmental or economic issue – it is a major security threat. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security and Department of Defense have identified IUU fishing as a national security concern, due to its ties to geopolitical expansion and the great power competition, as well as organized crime and human rights violations/forced labor. 

Many of these fishing operations, particularly those originating from China, use illicit practices to extend territorial claims under the guise of commercial fishing, over-exploit marine resources, and weaken coastal economies. 

IUU vessels frequently operate with fraudulent registrations, engage in illegal transshipments, and exploit forced labor. Beyond its economic toll, IUU fishing contributes to regional instability, as it frequently leads to confrontations between fishing fleets and national enforcement agencies. 

This has caused tensions in the South China Sea, where Chinese fishing vessels – many suspected of being part of the country’s maritime militia – operate in contested waters, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Monitoring and enforcement efforts remain fragmented, as many governments lack the resources or political will to address IUU fishing effectively. Traditional monitoring methods, such as onboard inspections and patrols, have proven inadequate due to the vast scale of the problem. 

The use of AI-driven vessel tracking, behavioral anomaly detection, and real-time intelligence sharing among governments is becoming essential to counteract these illicit networks.

Sanctions compliance is becoming an increasingly complex challenge, as adversaries employ sophisticated tactics to evade detection. Russia, Iran, and North Korea have significantly expanded the use of shadow fleets – vessels operating outside traditional regulatory frameworks to circumvent sanctions. These fleets frequently change ownership, reflag under different jurisdictions, and manipulate AIS signals to obscure their movements.

The SHIP Act has intensified scrutiny on Iranian-linked tankers, but enforcement remains challenging, as illicit actors find new ways to evade detection. Many of these vessels conduct ship-to-ship transfers in high-risk zones to launder their cargo’s origin. Regulatory bodies must enhance AI-driven behavioral analysis to identify suspicious vessel activity and improve enforcement measures.

The proliferation of shadow fleets poses a challenge for traders and shippers, and other legitimate actors seeking to comply with international trade laws. Advanced vessel tracking and AI-powered analytics are becoming indispensable tools for governments to enforce sanctions effectively and combat illicit shipping networks.

Shadow fleet vessels have also become players in submarine cable sabotage incidents, especially in the Baltic Sea. In response, governments and security organizations have begun keeping track of these vessels, understanding that vessels conducting deceptive activities in an effort to evade sanctions are just as likely to employ similar practices to accomplish other illicit acts.

How can we connect the dots between all these trends? 

We live in an era of rapidly shifting geopolitical landscapes, advanced deceptive shipping tactics, and hybrid security threats – everything is constantly changing. And government agencies are being asked to do more with less, with personnel shortages a global concern. The need to recognize emerging patterns quickly, move from awareness to action, and amplify human resources and expertise is critical. 

Traditional methods of monitoring and enforcement are no longer sufficient; maritime organizations would be wise to embrace AI-powered maritime intelligence solutions to stay ahead of evolving threats. 

The ability to predict, detect, and mitigate risks before they escalate is essential for safeguarding global trade, national security, and economic stability. Leveraging artificial intelligence, behavioral analytics, and real-time monitoring tools can provide government agencies and traders and shippers with the actionable intelligence needed to counter emerging threats.