Reports

Smuggling Risk Rises Amid U.S. Port Disruptions

On July 14, 2025, Windward’s Early Detection solution flagged a notable anomaly: a 150% increase in the number of vessels with smuggling risk drifting within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This sharp rise — from an expected 10 vessels to 25 — prompted immediate attention.

Windward’s Early Detection capability delivers real-time alerts on maritime anomalies worldwide, enabling agencies to move from awareness to action more quickly. In this case, the anomaly was triggered by vessels exhibiting behavioral indicators historically associated with smuggling, including dark activity, unusual loitering, course deviations, and other suspicious patterns.

A concentration of such behaviors so close to U.S. shores is highly unusual — and potentially significant. A deep dive into the underlying factors behind this anomaly is needed to assess what it might signal for border security and maritime domain awareness moving forward.

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Image: Windward’s Early Detection Solution showing a sharp spike in vessels with smuggling risk drifting in U.S. EEZ

Understanding the Anomaly

The first step in assessing any anomaly is understanding its underlying causes — and what it might signal. Windward’s Early Detection solution is powered by MAI Expert™, a Gen AI-driven virtual subject matter expert that analyzes anomalies in real-time. It automatically connects Early Detection insights to relevant open-source data, surfacing explanations that provide both context and clarity.

In this case, MAI Expert™ linked the unusual spike in drifting smuggling-risk vessels to broader trade and port disruptions across the United States.

Between July 7 and 14, 2025, 25 vessels with behavioral risk indicators associated with smuggling were observed drifting at low speeds in U.S. waters, more than double the baseline of 10.

This pattern coincided with a significant slowdown in U.S. port activity, including an 8–18% decrease in container processing and a sharp drop in port employment levels.

These disruptions were driven by recently imposed trade tariffs, which triggered rerouting, canceled port calls, and uncertainty across global supply chains.

As a result, vessels appear to be drifting while awaiting berth availability, new routing instructions, or further clarity on trade policies, creating congestion offshore and increasing risk exposure near the U.S. coastline.

By connecting these dots, Windward’s MAI Expert™ highlights a critical link between global trade disruptions and emerging security vulnerabilities. When port operations slow down due to regulatory shifts, such as new tariffs, the entire system becomes strained, resulting in fewer inspections, reduced oversight, and longer vessel wait times offshore. These conditions can create a window of opportunity for bad actors to exploit the situation, increasing the risk of smuggling, illicit transfers, and unauthorized activity in close proximity to U.S. shores. 

Pinpointing Vulnerabilities

Once an anomaly is detected, the next step is operational: understanding where the risks are concentrated and what to look out for. Windward’s Intelligence Platform enables users to drill down into each insight flagged by Early Detection, investigating the specific vessels, locations, and behaviors contributing to the anomaly.

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Image: Drifting activities clusters across U.S. waters. Source: Windward’s Maritime AI™ Platform

The first layer of insight reveals a clear geographic distribution of risk. By mapping the drifting activity of smuggling-risk vessels, we see a concentration around key U.S. port approaches, highlighting which maritime gateways may be more vulnerable in times of disruption. The image below displays this distribution. The numbers in purple represent the number of drifting events conducted by these vessels during the anomaly period.

Windward’s built-in pivot table then allows users to extract detailed insights across the entire dataset. Here’s what we found:

  • Risk Profile:
    Out of 25 vessels, 2 were flagged as high risk for smuggling activity, while the remainder were classified as moderate risk, still noteworthy given their proximity to U.S. shores.
  • Flags of Convenience:
    As expected, the majority operate under flags of convenience, which often obscure true ownership and lower regulatory oversight:

    • 8 Panama
    • 5 Liberia
    • 3 Marshall Islands
    • 3 Singapore
    • 1 China
  • Vessel Types:
    The fleet is dominated by bulk carriers (18) and crude oil tankers (4) — vessel classes frequently involved in high-volume, low-visibility cargo transfers, making them attractive for illicit activity.

This vessel-level insight enables enforcement agencies to transition from broad anomaly detection to targeted action, identifying specific types of vessels, flags, and trade routes that warrant enhanced scrutiny when disruptions disrupt normal operations.

Vessel Spotlight: A High-Risk Drifter in U.S. Waters

To illustrate how a single vessel can raise red flags across multiple vectors, we turn to the highest-risk vessel identified in this anomaly: a Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier.

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Image: The vessel’s drifting activities. Source: Windward’s Maritime AI™ Platform

Using Windward’s MAI Expert™ for vessel screening, the vessel was automatically assessed as High Risk for Border Security as of June 16, 2025, based on a combination of historical behavior, ownership structure, and open-source intelligence.

Behavioral Indicators:

  • Course deviations inconsistent with historical voyages
  • Anomalous loitering in high-sensitivity zones
  • Dark activities, where the vessel’s AIS transponder was turned off
  • Deviations from operational norms relative to its vessel class and trade routes

These behaviors, coupled with erratic movement patterns and prolonged drifting in the U.S. EEZ, signal elevated smuggling risk.

MAI Expert™ also surfaced multiple adverse media reports linking the URSA MAJOR to a high-profile maritime incident:

  • In December 2024, the vessel sank in the Mediterranean Sea following a reported explosion between Spain and Algeria.
  • The vessel was allegedly under U.S. sanctions as property of SK-South LLC, a firm tied to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • The owner claimed the incident involved three separate explosions, hinting at possible sabotage or terrorism.

On July 3, the vessel offloaded cargo in New Orleans, then drifted offshore for two days (July 5–7) before sailing upriver through the Mississippi River, only to turn back midway near Bellevue, then exit into the Gulf of Mexico. It is now en route to El-Dekheila, Egypt.

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Image: The vessel’s route – circular drifting (bottom), followed by sailing upriver, drifting, and turning back mid-way. Source: Windward’s Maritime AI™ Platform

This unusual navigation pattern — particularly post-cargo operations — may indicate efforts to obscure final routing or perform unauthorized cargo transfers. Despite this history, the vessel was able to dock in New Orleans and navigate deep into the U.S. interior before returning to international waters.

This example underscores how behavioral risk, opaque ownership structures, and geopolitical entanglements can converge in a single vessel. Its presence — and actions — within the U.S. EEZ at a time of port disruption illustrate the kind of border security vulnerability Windward’s platform is designed to detect early and explain in full context.

From Anomaly to Action: Staying Ahead of Emerging Threats

This case illustrates how quickly a routine behavioral pattern — such as vessel drifting — can escalate into a potential border security concern when situated in the right operational and geopolitical context.

What began as a single anomaly detected by Windward’s Early Detection capability led to:

  • The identification of a 150% increase in smuggling-risk vessels drifting off U.S. shores
  • A connection between global trade disruptions and reduced scrutiny at ports, creating windows of opportunity for bad actors
  • The isolation of specific port regions where vulnerabilities are concentrated
  • A detailed risk profile of the highest-risk vessel, revealing a concerning mix of behavioral red flags, opaque ownership, and links to sanctioned entities

This workflow — from detection to investigation to contextualized intelligence — is powered by MAI Expert™, Windward’s Gen AI subject matter expert. It enables agencies to cut through the noise, focus on what matters, and make faster, better-informed decisions without waiting for manual analysis.

Operational Takeaways

  • Behavior matters: Even in disrupted trade environments, outlier behavior — like unusual loitering or route deviation — remains a leading indicator of risk.
  • Context is critical: Understanding why something is happening is as important as what is happening. MAI Expert™ connects these dots in real time.
  • From anomaly to investigation: The ability to pivot seamlessly from detection to deep vessel screening, port impact analysis, and ownership tracking is essential to staying proactive.
  • Early intelligence enables early action: Identifying risk before it reaches the dock enables agencies to better allocate surveillance, inspection, and interdiction resources.

In an era of shifting trade dynamics and increasingly complex threats, Windward equips agencies with the tools to see further, understand faster, and act smarter — keeping borders secure, even when the maritime picture is murky.

Learn How to Stay Ahead of Smuggling Risks with Early Detection