Signals across the world's critical maritime corridors
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Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz Transits in March
−97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped from an average of 120 daily transits to just 3.6 following Operation Epic Fury.
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GPS Jamming
GPS Jamming Events in Q1
978,000
98% of GPS jamming incidents were concentrated in the Middle East Gulf, accelerating sharply in the first two weeks of the Iran conflict.
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Vessel Interdictions
Q1 Vessel Interdictions vs. Q4 2025
+160%
13 ships were boarded and detained in Q1 2026, half of all 26 interdictions recorded across 2025–2026.
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Dark Fleet
Dark Fleet Growth in Q1 vs. Q4 2025
+45
Windward's tracked Dark Fleet grew to 2,108 vessels from 2,063 in the prior quarter, with 48% sanctioned.
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Sanctions
Vessel Designations in Q1 vs. Q4 2025
−8%
Regulators made 851 vessel designations in Q1, down from 923 in the previous quarter. 94% were tankers.
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False Flags & Flag Hopping
Flag Hopping in Q1 vs. Q4 2025
−26%
Flag hopping fell 26% in Q1 from late-2025 peaks, with 179 high-risk or sanctioned vessels changing flags at least twice.
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Risk 01 · Strait of Hormuz
97% DECLINE IN HORMUZ TRANSIT
Operation Epic Fury and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the IRGC drove transit volumes down 97%. The largest shock to oil markets in more than 50 years.
−97%
Strait of Hormuz transits in March 2026
1,100+
Vessels affected by GPS Jamming
−87%
Crude shipments bound west of Hormuz
+330%
Saudi crude exports from Red Sea port of Yanbu
−91%
Dry bulk carrier transits through Hormuz
−62%
Week-on-week crude and condensate loadings
Source: Windward Maritime AI™ · Q1 2026
Risk 02 · GPS Jamming
In the first weeks of the Iran war, AIS effectively became unreliable: more than 1,100 vessels were impacted by GPS jamming, with 959,627 events recorded in the Middle East Gulf alone, accounting for 98% of all incidents. The Black Sea ranked a distant second with 7,630 cases.
978K GPS JAMMING EVENTS IN Q1
978K
GPS jamming events in Q1
98%
In the Middle East Gulf
1,100+
Vessels affected in Middle East Gulf
Windward Fused Intelligence Layers
✗ AIS Compromised◍ SAR Confirmed◈ RF Correlated◎ EO Verified
Source: Windward Maritime AI™ · Q1 2026
Risk 03 · Vessel Interdictions
VENEZUELA DRIVES Q1 INTERDICTION SURGE
The first quarter saw a surge in vessels seized and interdicted across global waters, with the U.S.-led Operation Southern Spear in Venezuela driving the majority of these actions.
+160%
Vessels interdicted vs. Q4 2025
92%
Of interdicted vessels sanctioned
85%
Of interdicted vessels falsely flagged
Five of the 13 cases involved European or UK operations.
The remainder were led by U.S. authorities.
12 of the 13 cases involved tankers.
All were flagged by Windward for risk linked to Russia, Iran, Venezuela, or Syria.
46% were released; 38% remain detained.
Source: Windward Maritime AI™ · Q1 2026
Risk 04 · Dark Activity & the Dark Fleet
Dark activity continued to surge, with Windward's tracked dark fleet of vessels operating outside international rules based order, expanding as sanctioned regimes sustained oil flows to support their isolated economies.
DARK FLEET REACHES 2,108 VESSELS IN Q1
2,108
Dark fleet vessels
+45
Dark fleet growth: Q1 vs. Q4 2025
48%
Share of dark fleet vessels sanctioned
22%
Share of dark fleet vessels flagged to Russia
1.77M
Barrels per day of Iranian crude exported via the dark fleet
100
Non-transmitting vessels in the Riau Archipelago
Source: Windward Maritime AI™ · Q1 2026
Risk 05 · Sanctions
VESSEL DESIGNATIONS DOWN 8% QoQ TO 851
While seizures and interdictions surged, the ship-sanctioning wave that defined 2025 eased slightly, with 851 vessel designations in Q1, down from 923 in the prior quarter.
851
Vessels designated by regulators worldwide
-8%
Vessel designations: Q1 vs. Q4 2025
94%
Share of new designations that were tankers
The UK designated 38 Russia-linked vessels.
The U.S. designated 39 Iran-linked vessels.
Australia led vessel designations, at 43%.
Followed by Canada (26%) and Switzerland (5%).
Source: Windward Maritime AI™ · Q1 2026
Risk 06 · False Flags & Flag Hopping
290 TANKERS BROADCASTING FALSE FLAGS IN Q1
The use of false registries, flag hopping, and false flags remains widespread to obscure vessel identity. As seizure pressure intensified in Q1, flag hopping declined, but the number of falsely flagged vessels increased.
-26%
Flag hopping: Q1 vs. Q4 2025
290
Tankers broadcasting fraudulent registry flags
20
Fraudulent registries vs. 18 in Q4 2025
88% of ships using fraudulent registries sanctioned
Highlighting mounting pressure on dark fleet tankers to find a regulatory home.
Netherlands Antilles led fraudulent registries (52 vessels)
Followed by Guyana (43), Guinea (28), and Madagascar (24).
Nicaragua and Equatorial Guinea
Two newly used fraudulent registries identified by Windward.
Source: Windward Maritime AI™ · Q1 2026
Risk 07 · Oil Markets in Shock
In collaboration with
GULF CRUDE LOADINGS FALL 74% IN MARCH
As Hormuz transits fell by 97%, the largest shock to oil markets in more than 50 years triggered a cascading supply crunch across Asia, the destination for 80% of oil cargoes.
−74%
Gulf crude & condensate MARCH VS. FEB
−76%
CPP exports MARCH VS. FEB
−7.5%
Global crude & condensate exports: Q1 vs. Q4 2025
Exports west of Hormuz fell 76% — 22.2M → 5.28M bpd
Crude, CPP, and DPP exports collapsed from February to March as transits ground to a halt.
128M of 142.5M barrels loaded in March stuck in transit
Tankers unable to exit the strait — held in floating storage or anchored in the Gulf.
