Great Power Competition

What is the Great Power Competition?

The Great Power Competition refers to the intensifying rivalry between dominant global powers – primarily the United States, China, and Russia – as they seek to shape international rules, secure strategic influence, and control critical trade routes. This competition spans diplomacy, military posture, economic policy, and technology leadership. 

In the maritime domain, the Great Power Competition manifests through naval expansion, military exercises, strategic port investments, and contested access to key shipping corridors such as the South China Sea, Panama Canal, and Arctic routes. According to the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE), over 5% of global trade and 40% of U.S. container traffic passes through the Panama Canal, a vital chokepoint increasingly shaped by geopolitical rivalry.

TLDR 

The Great Power Competition is the global rivalry between major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia. It reshapes trade routes, security strategies, and compliance risks across the maritime domain. From chokepoint control and naval presence to sanctions enforcement and port infrastructure, its ripple effects impact stakeholders in shipping, governments, and logistics. 

How Does the Great Power Competition Apply to Trading and Shipping?

For trading and shipping organizations, the Great Power Competition creates both risks and opportunities. Security personnel must navigate expanding sanctions regimes, evolving compliance demands, and new maritime security threats as rival powers compete for control over global trade lanes and regional influence.

Key applications include:

• Sanctions exposure: Rivalries often trigger new or expanding sanctions, requiring pre-fixture compliance checks and ongoing monitoring.
• Fleet routing and trade arteries: Control over chokepoints like the Panama Canal or Strait of Malacca affects voyage planning, costs, and insurance risks.
• Deceptive shipping practices (DSPs): Increased monitoring is needed to detect tactics like AIS manipulation or ship-to-ship transfers linked to sanctioned entities.
• Operational risk management: Geopolitical tensions introduce uncertainty that security teams must account for in voyage planning and daily decision-making.

How does the Great Power Competition impact global shipping routes?

Great Power Competition shapes how fleets are routed by raising the stakes at strategic waterways like the Panama Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Suez Canal. These chokepoints are increasingly subject to geopolitical pressures – from port access disputes to military build-ups – that cause routing instability, congestion, or even temporary blockages. Shipping security personnel must anticipate delays, adjust scheduling dynamically, and build resilience into voyage planning.

How does Great Power Competition affect voyage planning and charter party compliance?

Sanctions are a core instrument of influence in the Great Power Competition, and new restrictions can emerge with little warning. This volatility forces shipping security teams to continuously reassess counterparty exposure, vessel ownership structures, and behavioral risk indicators before fixtures are finalized. A single missed sanctions update or overlooked deceptive practice can lead to fines, reputational damage, or denied port access, even when the cargo itself is legitimate.

What compliance blind spots are created by evolving U.S.-Russia sanctions under Great Power Competition?

The expanding U.S. and allied sanctions on Russia – initially driven by the war in Ukraine and intensified by the broader Great Power Competition – have introduced a host of compliance blind spots for trading and shipping companies. Vessels may appear compliant on paper while being indirectly linked to sanctioned entities through obscure ownership structures, flag hopping, or deceptive routing. Other risks include sanctioned cargo disguised with falsified Certificates of Origin (COO) or shell companies used to mask financial or operational ties. 

These blind spots make it harder for shipping security personnel to assess counterparty risk and require enhanced behavioral monitoring and due diligence to avoid costly violations.

How Great Power Competition Impacts National Maritime Security

For government agencies, Great Power Competition directly shapes national maritime security priorities, as rival states compete for strategic control over waters, trade corridors, and infrastructure. Maritime domains often serve as the frontline of this rivalry, with governments relying on intelligence to protect critical infrastructure, territorial waters, and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). Intelligence and enforcement teams must adapt strategies to account for rival powers’ naval activity, expanding sanction regimes, and disputes over maritime boundaries.

Key applications include:

• Critical infrastructure protection: Rivalries heighten risks to pipelines, undersea cables, offshore rigs, and ports. 
• Naval posture tracking: Governments monitor military deployments and joint exercises by rival powers in contested waters. 
• Sanctions enforcement: Intelligence teams must track vessel behaviors and cargo flows tied to sanctioned actors or routes. 
• Maritime boundary disputes: Great Power Competition intensified legal and operational challenges around EEZ claims and contested territory.
  

How does the Great Power Competition affect national maritime security strategies?

Rival power projection increases the need for real-time maritime domain awareness (MDA). Government security teams must expand surveillance and threat detection capabilities to protect infrastructure, assert sovereignty, and deter hostile activity. This includes monitoring vessel behavior near undersea cables, offshore platforms, and territorial waters, and deploying both intelligence and response assets as tensions escalate.

Why is the Great Power Competition central to sanctions enforcement?

Sanctions have become a primary instrument of power in geopolitical rivalries. Governments use them to restrict adversaries’ access to critical resources and shipping routes. As new sanctions are introduced or updated frequently, enforcement agencies must monitor not only flagged vessels, but also cargo ownership, routing patterns, and behavioral anomalies. In this context, sanctions enforcement becomes a dynamic, intelligence-driven function, not just a list-based screening task. 

How Great Power Competition Disrupts Maritime Container Logistics

Maritime container logistics is especially vulnerable to disruptions caused by the Great Power Competition. As rival states vie for geopolitical and economic influence, global trade routes, port infrastructure, and customs protocols come under pressure. For logistics teams, this means building resilience into operations by anticipating bottlenecks, adjusting to shifting trade policies, and ensuring compliance across increasingly complex supply chains. 

Logistics teams are seeing impacts in areas like:

• Chokepoint bottlenecks: Rivalries cause delays at critical junctures like the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and Strait of Malacca. 
• Trade realignment: Tariff changes and regional conflicts shift container flows and alter cost structures. 
• Sanctions pressure: Growing sanction regimes require tighter vetting of suppliers, ports, and routing. 
• Port displacement: Military posturing or policy shifts force cargo to alternative ports, increasing congestion and delivery uncertainty.

How does the Great Power Competition disrupt containerized trade flows?

Rivalries between global powers often trigger bottlenecks, chokepoint restrictions, or shifting trade agreements – all of which impact how containers are routed. These disruptions ripple across the supply chain, causing delays, higher freight costs, and logistical uncertainty for security and operations teams.

Why should logistics teams embed the Great Power Competition into supply chain strategy?

Maritime rivalries can rapidly shift trade flows, disrupt chokepoints, and trigger new sanctions regimes. Logistics teams must account for these shifts by building adaptable routing plans, strengthening supplier vetting, and ensuring end-to-end visibility across the supply chain.

Windward’s Role in Mitigating Risks from the Great Power Competition

Windward’s Maritime AI™ equips organizations with the intelligence needed to navigate the growing maritime risks linked to the Great Power Competition. Rivalries between major powers are increasing the frequency and complexity of sanctions, chokepoint disruptions, and deceptive shipping practices – all of which create operational and compliance challenges for governments, traders, and logistics providers.

Windward helps security teams:

• Anticipate disruptions driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics.
• Track deceptive shipping practices linked to sanctioned states or evasive actors.
• Maintain compliance amid evolving international sanctions and export controls.
• Strengthen resilience by identifying emerging risks across global maritime corridors.

Windward equips teams with the maritime intelligence needed to reduce risk, strengthen compliance, and stay resilient as global power dynamics evolve.