The Storm that Shaped Shipments & a Popular New Flag – Weekly Roundup

A storm in July hit a critical area – particularly following the many months of Houthi attacks. Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform detected an average of 500 ETA changes for ships traveling from Europe to Asia during that period. Read on to see how ports were affected and loitering numbers. 

Also, a new flag registry is gaining popularity in recent months. 2004 has seen a 60% increase in this flag registration by tankers: 

• 46% are affiliated with Russia (marked medium or high risk by Windward’s Russia Risk model)

Harsh Weather in the Cape of Good Hope and its Effect on Shipments

• The Cape of Good Hope is known as a stormy zone, so it should come as no surprise that in the second week of July, the area was hit with harsh weather. This included extreme winds, high waves, and dangerous sailing conditions. We tracked the impact to try and understand the preliminary signs entities should look out for, as well as the consequences.

• The Red Sea crisis has diverted many cargo vessels away from the Suez Canal for months. They opted to sail the Cape route. Vessels with shipments already en route had a difficult choice to make: they could either attempt to traverse these difficult conditions and risk damage to their cargo or worse, putting the crew members’ lives at risk, or they could wait in place (or go to a different port in the vicinity) and suffer increased voyage times, resulting in financial losses.

• We can visualize the effect on cargo vessels by looking at the ETA changes the vessels communicated before, during, and shortly after the storm period, which was approximately July 9-12.  Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform detected an average of 500 ETA changes in ships traveling from Europe to Asia.

_{Number of changes in ETA for vessels traveling from Europe to Asia during the first three weeks of July}

• To see how the ports were affected, we can look at Port Elizabeth in South Africa as an example. It usually sees about five cargo vessels a day on average. During the storm, port calls dropped significantly, especially  cargo vessel calls

_{Port calls in Port Elizabeth during the first three weeks of July, cargo vs non-cargo}

As mentioned previously, some vessels opted to remain in place, or were likely awaiting further instructions during the storm. So loitering numbers skyrocketed in the days prior to the storm and returned to normal shortly thereafter.

_{Number of loitering activities in South Africa’s EEZ during the first three weeks of July}

Tankers Reflagging to Cook Islands

• The Cook Islands flag registry is growing in popularity in recent months. We looked at tanker vessels that switched to the Cook Islands flag – usually from other flags of convenience, such as Panama.
• Windward data shows that in the last two years, 95 tankers changed their flag to Cook Islands. 59% of these changes occurred since the beginning of 2024 – Q2 saw most of these changes. 
• When comparing 2023 to 2024 (so far), we can see a 60% increase in Cook Islands flag registration by tankers. Of these:
  • 37% switched from Panama’s flag
  • 27% switched from Liberia’s flag
  • 25% switched from Marshall Islands’ flag
  • 46% are affiliated with Russia (marked medium or high risk by Windward’s Russia Risk model)

_{Number of tankers switching to Cook Islands flag during the past two years.}

• All 95 vessels that changed their flags to Cooks Islands are still flying the Cook Island flag, indicating that they have yet to face problems conducting business. Until other entities catch on and decide to take action, we can expect this trend to strengthen in the near future.

Published This Week by Windward 

1. Best Practices for Augmenting TMS Data & Other Workflows – guide 
2. Gen AI’s ROI for Maritime – blog post 

How to be Proactive in the Location (GNSS) Manipulation Cat-and-Mouse Game – blog post