March 5, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily

At a Glance

• The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with only five vessel crossings recorded on March 4.
• Bab el-Mandeb traffic surged to 23 crossings, sitting above recent averages.
• Suez Canal activity dropped to 23 crossings, falling below trend levels.
• Cape of Good Hope diversions remained elevated, confirming continued rerouting of global trade.
• A crude tanker explosion near Kuwait damaged a cargo tanker and triggered an oil spill, marking the northernmost vessel attack reported during the current conflict.
• AIS disruption across the Gulf continues, with 44 injected signal zones and 92 denial areas detected.
• Port disruption indicators rose at major UAE hubs, including Jebel Ali and Khalifa.

Operational Overview 

Maritime traffic across the Middle East remained deeply disrupted on March 4 as threats by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards against vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continued to shape the operating environment.

Only five total vessel crossings were recorded through Hormuz, far below typical baseline levels and unchanged from the previous day. The sustained collapse in transit activity has driven the 7-day moving average down to just 27 crossings, reflecting the continued absence of routine commercial traffic through the corridor.

Elsewhere, regional traffic patterns diverged sharply. Bab el-Mandeb crossings surged above recent averages, while Suez Canal traffic fell below trend, reinforcing the uneven redistribution of global shipping flows as operators adapt to the evolving threat environment.

Longer routing patterns also remained firmly in place. Traffic around the Cape of Good Hope stayed elevated, indicating that many operators continue to avoid Gulf transit routes entirely.

Operational disruption is now increasingly visible onshore as well. Exception indicators across major Gulf hubs, including Jebel Ali and Khalifa ports, show growing levels of late departures, rollovers, and transshipment delays, highlighting the cascading logistics effects of chokepoint instability.

At the same time, kinetic maritime risk remains active. On March 4, a Bahamas-flagged crude tanker suffered a large explosion while anchored southeast of Kuwait, marking the northernmost vessel attack recorded during the current conflict.

Electronic Interference Expands Across the Gulf

Electronic interference continues to degrade AIS reliability across the Gulf, complicating vessel tracking and situational awareness.

AIS systems onboard vessels remain particularly vulnerable to disruption due to their reliance on single-frequency GPS receivers and limited onboard anomaly detection, while smartphone-based navigation devices often remain functional because they rely on multi-constellation satellite positioning and multi-frequency signals.

Jamming Denial and Injected Signal Zones

Additional analysis from Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform indicates two distinct electronic interference patterns emerging across the region.

Denial areas, primarily concentrated in the Persian Gulf, are locations where AIS transmissions are not received even though vessels are likely operating in the area.

Injected or jammed zones, observed across parts of the Gulf and extending into the Gulf of Oman, show AIS signals being artificially displaced. In these areas, vessels may appear in incorrect geographic locations, sometimes even appearing on land or near unrelated infrastructure.

Windward’s March 4 analysis identified 44 injected signal zones and 92 denial areas across the Persian Gulf.

Multi-Source Intelligence Signals

Multi-source intelligence monitoring shows a sharp shift in regional signal activity since February 28, consistent with the broader degradation of maritime visibility across the Gulf. 

High-accuracy records increased from ~850 per day pre-February 28 to ~1,510 per day post-February 28, peaking at 1,711 on March 2. Geographically, a new concentration emerged near Ras Al Khaimah, while signal density near Upper Zakum and Das Island increased 3x, with activity shifting from transit-lane patterns toward stationary clustering. 

Connectivity signals also changed materially, with Starlink usage more than doubling after February 28 and Yahsat usage spiking on March 2, aligning with the peak record volume.

Traffic Through Strait of Hormuz Remains Frozen

Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz remained extremely limited on March 4 following the closure declared by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Only five vessel crossings were recorded (four inbound and one outbound), representing no change compared to the previous day and remaining far below the 7-day average of 27 crossings.

The vessels observed included one general cargo vessel and four vessels categorized as other or unknown types. Flag distribution was led by India with three vessels, alongside one vessel each flagged in Comoros and Bolivia.

Despite the presence of limited transits, the extremely low volume reflects both the continued enforcement of the closure and a broader absence of commercial confidence in safe passage through the Strait.

Red Sea Traffic Surges While Suez Activity Falls

Bab el-Mandeb

Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb increased sharply on March 4.

A total of 21 crossings were recorded, including 15 inbound movements toward the Red Sea and six outbound transits toward the Arabian Sea. This represents a 950% increase compared to the previous day and sits far above the 7-day average of fewer than three crossings.

Bulk carriers accounted for the largest share of transits, followed by general cargo vessels. Seven additional vessels were categorized as other or unknown, including container vessels, tanker variants, and unclassified vessel types.

Flag distribution was led by the Marshall Islands with six vessels, and Liberia with four vessels, with additional traffic flagged in Barbados, Panama, Guinea, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Russia.

The sudden increase in crossings suggests temporary corridor utilization or repositioning behavior across the Red Sea Approach, though continued Houthi threats across the Red Sea region mean the stability of traffic in this corridor remains uncertain.

Suez Canal

Suez Canal activity moved in the opposite direction.

A total of 23 crossings were recorded on March 4, with 22 inbound and one outbound, representing a 53% drop compared to the previous day and well below the 7-day average of 38 crossings.

Container vessels and tanker traffic accounted for a large share of movements, alongside bulk carriers and a range of specialized vessel classes.

The sharp decline suggests that regional trade flows remain unstable, with corridor throughput fluctuating significantly as operators adjust routing strategies across multiple maritime chokepoints.

Cape of Good Hope Diversions

Traffic around the Cape of Good Hope remained elevated on March 4, reinforcing the sustained shift in global shipping patterns away from Gulf transit routes.

A total of 87 vessel transits were recorded, including 35 eastbound and 52 westbound movements. This volume sits broadly in line with the 7-day average of roughly 75 transits.

Bulk carriers and container vessels accounted for the largest share of movements, followed by LPG carriers, crude tankers, and general cargo vessels.

The continued volume of traffic around southern Africa highlights the growing operational acceptance of long-haul rerouting as a risk-management strategy while Gulf access remains constrained.

U.S. Electronic Warfare Operations

Reports indicate that approximately 18 aircraft are currently assessed to be engaged in suppressing Iranian integrated air defense systems, which rely heavily on land-based surface-to-air missile networks rather than fighter aircraft.

According to U.S. Central Command reporting, early strikes under Operation Epic Fury targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command facilities, air defense systems, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields across Iran.

These electronic warfare operations are likely intended to degrade Iranian radar coverage and jamming infrastructure, which could directly affect the electronic interference environment currently impacting maritime navigation across the Gulf region.

Confirmed Vessel Attacks Continued to Spread

As of March 4, eight vessels have been confirmed struck since the start of Operation Epic Fury, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center:

• Skylight (IMO 9330020).
• MKD Vyom (IMO 9284386).
• Sea La Donna (IMO 9380532).
• Hercules Star (IMO 9916135).
• Stena Imperative (IMO 9666077).
• Athe Nova (IMO 9188116).
• Ocean Electra (IMO 9402782).
• Safeen Prestige (IMO 9593517).

Incident locations form a broad arc across the region rather than clustering around a single chokepoint. Attacks have occurred near the UAE coastline, in Omani waters, inside Bahrain’s port, and near approaches linked to Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure.

The pattern suggests a strategy aimed at creating widespread disruption and uncertainty across the regional maritime operating environment, rather than targeting a single corridor.

Northern Gulf Vessel Attack Near Kuwait

On March 4, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a large explosion onboard the Bahamas-flagged crude tanker SONANGOL NAMIBE while the vessel was anchored approximately 30 nautical miles southeast of Kuwait.

Subsequent reporting on March 5 indicated that the explosion damaged a cargo tank and triggered an oil leak into surrounding waters.

The 274-meter tanker had been stationary in the area since February 26 after departing Singapore. The vessel’s master reported hearing and observing a powerful explosion on the port side of the ship, followed by the sighting of a small craft leaving the area shortly afterward.

No crew injuries were reported, and the cause of the explosion remains under investigation.

The incident marks the northernmost vessel attack recorded during the current conflict, expanding the geographic envelope of maritime risk.

IRIS Dena Strike Extends Conflict Into the Indian Ocean 

The maritime conflict environment also expanded beyond the Middle East on March 4.

A U.S. Navy submarine reportedly torpedoed and sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena approximately 40 nautical miles south of Sri Lanka while the vessel was transiting international waters after participating in a multinational naval exercise in India.

Sri Lankan forces launched a search-and-rescue operation following the incident, rescuing several crew members while continuing to search for survivors.

The strike represents a significant geographic escalation, extending maritime security risk into the Indian Ocean theater.

Port Disruption Emerging Across Gulf Hubs

Operational disruptions are also becoming visible at key Gulf ports, where exception indicators are rising as maritime traffic patterns shift and regional risk levels remain elevated.

Jebel Ali, UAE, recorded 18 late-departure cases, representing a 38% increase compared to the 7-day average despite a drop from the previous day. The port also saw five port-of-loading rollovers, nine transshipment rollovers, and 32 transshipment-delay cases, with delays running 75% above the weekly average.

At Khalifa port, disruption indicators rose even more sharply. Late departures climbed to 14 cases, a 1,300% increase compared to the previous day and 326% above the 7-day average. Port-of-loading rollovers also reached 14 cases, while transshipment rollovers rose to six and transshipment delays totaled 11 cases, all significantly above recent weekly averages.

These indicators suggest that the disruption triggered by chokepoint instability and elevated regional threat conditions is beginning to propagate through Gulf logistics networks, affecting cargo flows beyond the immediate conflict zone.

Outlook

The March 4 operating picture reinforces a pattern of persistent maritime disruption across multiple layers of the regional system.

Hormuz remains effectively closed, suppressing normal Gulf transit. Traffic flows across other corridors remain unstable, with Bab el‑Mandeb activity remaining volatile, while Suez Canal throughput stays below trend.

Electronic interference continues to complicate vessel tracking, while confirmed vessel attacks and new incidents near Kuwait highlight the continued expansion of maritime risk across the region.

At the same time, elevated Cape of Good Hope diversions indicate that many operators are continuing to commit to long-distance rerouting strategies as uncertainty around Gulf transit persists.

For maritime operators, the result is an increasingly complex operating environment in which routing decisions, signal integrity, and localized security incidents must all be monitored simultaneously to maintain a reliable picture of regional maritime activity.