March 4, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily

At a Glance

• The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed on March 3, with only four vessels crossing the corridor.
• War-risk insurance withdrawals are reinforcing the reduction in commercial traffic through the Gulf.
• More than 1,100 vessels experienced GPS and AIS interference during the early phase of the conflict.
• Windward identified at least 35 electronic jamming clusters across the Gulf region.
• Suez Canal crossings surged while Bab el-Mandeb traffic remained suppressed, reflecting shifting corridor dynamics.
• Diversion traffic around the Cape of Good Hope continues to rise as operators commit to longer routes.
• Port congestion indicators are beginning to appear across Gulf and Arabian Sea hubs.

Operational Overview 

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined further on March 3 as the closure declared by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards continued to deter most commercial movement through the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.

Only four vessels crossed the Strait during the day, representing a further 42.86% decline from March 2 and dramatically below the recent seven-day average of 77 crossings. The few vessels that did transit reflect residual movements rather than the return of commercial traffic.

Insurance markets are reinforcing the disruption. Several protection and indemnity clubs issued cancellation notices for war-risk extensions covering vessels operating in the Gulf after reinsurance support was withdrawn, further limiting operators’ ability to enter the region.

Beyond the Strait itself, the broader maritime environment is becoming increasingly complex. Electronic interference is affecting vessel navigation across the Gulf, diversion traffic around the Cape of Good Hope continues to rise, and early signs of congestion are beginning to appear across regional ports.

Together, these indicators reflect a maritime environment defined by chokepoint disruption, widespread navigation interference, and emerging logistical impacts across global trade routes.

Maritime disruption deepens amid the Iran conflict.

• Only 4 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on March.
• 1,100+ ships hit by GPS and AIS disruption across the Gulf.
• Cape of Good Hope reroutes rising.
• War-risk cover withdrawn by insurers.

Get today’s verified… pic.twitter.com/tyVc3fLAhx

— Windward (@WindwardAI) March 4, 2026

Hormuz Traffic Collapses Further

Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz remained extremely limited on March 3.

Only four vessels transited the corridor, with two inbound and two outbound movements recorded. This represents a further 42.86% decline from the previous day and remains dramatically below the seven-day average of 77 crossings.

Windward analysis excluded the vessel GEM NO.1 from the count due to GPS signal distortion linked to regional jamming activity.

The vessels observed included one oil product tanker, one bulk carrier, one container vessel, and one vessel categorized as other or unknown. Flag distribution included two Liberian vessels, one Indian vessel, and one vessel flagged to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. One Liberian-flagged vessel transiting outbound was assessed as a medium smuggling risk, while the remaining three vessels were categorized as low risk profiles.

The minimal traffic level reflects both the continued IRGC threats of Strait closure and the lack of commercial confidence in safe transit conditions.

Electronic Warfare Across the Gulf

Within the first 24 hours of the launch of Operation Epic Fury, more than 1,100 vessels experienced GPS and AIS interference. Signals falsely projected vessels to airports, land infrastructure, and locations within Iranian territory, creating both navigation hazards and compliance monitoring challenges.

Windward identified at least 35 distinct jamming clusters between February 28 and March 2, where vessel signals were displaced or distorted.

Additional analysis from Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform shows two distinct interference patterns across the region: signal denial areas and injected signal zones. Denial areas – primarily concentrated in the Persian Gulf – are locations where AIS transmissions are not being received even though vessels are likely present. Injected or jammed zones, observed across parts of the Gulf and extending into the Gulf of Oman, show AIS signals being artificially displaced, causing vessels to appear in incorrect locations.

Red Sea and Suez Traffic Patterns

Bab el-Mandeb

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained suppressed but stable.

Two crossings were recorded on March 3, unchanged from the previous day and still roughly 30% below the seven-day moving average of 2.86 crossings.

The vessels included one container vessel and one LPG tanker, flagged to Singapore and Liberia, respectively. Both vessels were assessed as low-risk profiles.

The corridor continues to operate at reduced levels compared to pre-crisis traffic.

Suez Canal

Suez Canal activity increased sharply on March 3.

A total of 49 crossings were recorded, including 23 inbound and 26 outbound movements. This represents a 53.12% increase from the previous day and sits significantly above the seven-day average of 38.43 crossings.

Observed vessel types included bulk carriers, container vessels, crude tankers, product tankers, general cargo vessels, LNG carriers, and several additional subclasses. 

Cape of Good Hope Diversions

Diversion traffic around the Cape of Good Hope continued to increase on March 3, reinforcing the shift in maritime traffic away from Gulf transit corridors.

A total of 94 transits were recorded, including 42 eastbound and 52 westbound vessels. This represents an 8.05% increase from the previous day and remains above the seven-day average of 69.71 crossings.

Bulk carriers and container vessels accounted for the majority of movements, followed by LPG tankers, vehicle carriers, LNG tankers, crude tankers, and other cargo types. Flag distribution was led by Liberia, Panama, Singapore, the Marshall Islands, and Hong Kong. 

Infrastructure Incidents and Regional Risk

On March 3, a fire broke out at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone after UAE air defenses intercepted a drone, and falling debris struck a storage tank. The blaze was contained quickly, and no injuries were reported.

At the time of the incident, 116 vessels were present in the Fujairah anchorage and the surrounding operational area. The concentration included product tankers, crude tankers, chemical tankers, supply vessels, and bulk carriers. 

Meanwhile, the earlier strike on the Port of Duqm in Oman continues to illustrate the widening geographic scope of the conflict. The attack damaged dry-dock infrastructure and triggered fires near the container terminal. Fourteen vessels were present in the port during the incident.

Separately, a container vessel transiting eastbound through the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly struck by a missile in the port-side engine room while traveling from the United Arab Emirates toward Jeddah. AIS data showed the vessel drifting roughly 3.5 nautical miles north of Ras Musandam following the incident, with all crew members reported to have abandoned the ship.

Port Congestion Begins to Surface

Operational disruption is beginning to appear across Gulf and Arabian Sea port networks. Several regional hubs reported rising transshipment delays and shipment disruptions, indicating early logistical effects of chokepoint disruption and rerouted traffic flows.

In the Gulf, Jebel Ali recorded 13 delayed shipments, Khalifa Port reported 23 delayed shipments, and Dammam recorded 8 delayed shipments with sharp increases relative to both daily and weekly baselines.

In the Arabian Sea, Salalah recorded 57 delayed shipments, reflecting longer-term congestion growth despite a short-term daily decline.

Additional exception indicators across Gulf ports suggest broader operational strain. Ports including Hamad, Shuwaikh, and Khalifa Bin Salman are experiencing spikes in late departures, cargo rollovers, and transshipment delays.

These patterns indicate the early ripple effects of maritime chokepoint disruption spreading into global logistics networks.

Other Maritime Incidents 

Sri Lanka launched a rescue operation on March 4 after receiving a distress call from the Iranian naval frigate Iris Dena, which was later confirmed to have been struck by torpedoes from a U.S. submarine approximately 40 nautical miles south of Sri Lanka near Galle. 

Sri Lankan naval and air force units responded to assist the vessel, which was carrying roughly 140-180 crew members. Early rescue operations evacuated injured sailors for medical treatment while additional search and recovery efforts continued in the area. 

Separately, reports circulated suggesting that the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz may have been struck by a Ukrainian maritime drone off Libya between March 2 and March 3. As of March 3, the incident had not been confirmed through mainstream maritime databases, official government statements, or verified news reporting.

Subsequent reporting on March 4 suggested the sanctioned LNG carrier may have suffered a fire or explosion southeast of Malta, though the authenticity of related footage and reports remains unverified.

Outlook

Commercial shipping continues to adjust to a rapidly changing operating environment.

The near-halt of Hormuz traffic, combined with electronic interference and emerging congestion effects, is driving the rerouting of global trade flows. Diversion traffic around the Cape of Good Hope suggests operators are committing to longer voyages rather than waiting for stabilization in Gulf shipping lanes.

Absent rapid de-escalation, maritime risk exposure is likely to remain elevated across multiple corridors, with continued disruption affecting navigation systems, chokepoint traffic patterns, and global logistics flows.

Windward will continue publishing daily Iran War Maritime Intelligence updates as vessel behavior and regional risk conditions evolve.