March 23, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily

At a Glance

• Maritime activity across the Gulf remains active but constrained, with over 600 foreign-flagged vessels operating under shifting routing and behavioral patterns.
• Iran continues to enforce a controlled transit model through Hormuz, enabling selective passage via IRGC-managed corridors based on cargo type and destination.
• Dark activity and identity manipulation remain persistent, including the transit of a zombie LNG carrier using a recycled vessel identity.
• Iranian crude exports remain elevated, with 161 million barrels on the water under a temporary sanctions waiver, primarily bound for China.
• Russian oil volumes remain high despite infrastructure disruptions at Baltic export terminals, introducing forward supply risk.
• Saudi Arabia is accelerating Red Sea exports via Yanbu to offset Gulf constraints and reduce reliance on Hormuz transit.
• LNG, LPG, and container flows remain below seasonal norms, indicating sustained pressure on both energy distribution and global trade lanes.
• Port operations show continued volatility, with increased rerouting, delays, and destination changes across key hubs.
• Maritime security risk remains elevated, with vessel targeting and infrastructure disruption continuing across multiple regions.

Operational Overview 

Maritime activity across the Arabian Gulf remains constrained but operationally active, with over 600 foreign-flagged vessels currently transmitting AIS in the region. While large-scale commercial flows continue, vessel behavior indicates sustained disruption, including elevated dark activity, reduced anchoring durations, and shifting routing patterns under heightened geopolitical control.

Iran continues to consolidate control over the Strait of Hormuz through a selective transit model, enabling passage for specific vessels and cargo types via corridors within its territorial waters. This includes energy shipments bound for China, agricultural cargo flows, and select LPG movements, reinforcing a permission-based access framework rather than a full closure.

At the same time, global energy dynamics are shifting. Iranian oil volumes on the water have reached 161 million barrels under a temporary sanctions waiver, while Russian exports remain elevated at 159 million barrels despite mounting infrastructure disruptions, including the reported suspension of loadings at key Baltic ports following Ukrainian strikes.

Taken together, maritime operations are adapting to a fragmented and controlled environment, where access, routing, and energy flows are increasingly dictated by geopolitical alignment and operational necessity.

Gulf Vessel Presence Overview

AIS-transmitting foreign vessels in the Arabian Gulf total 609 vessels, consisting of 360 cargo vessels and 249 tankers.

Breakdown by vessel subclass:

• Bulk carriers: 153 vessels.
• Oil products tankers: 76 vessels.
• Crude oil tankers: 70 vessels.
• LNG and LPG carriers: 39 vessels.
• Container vessels: 38 vessels.
• Other vessel types: 233 vessels.

Top flag registries (excluding Gulf states):

• Panama: 125 vessels.
• Marshall Islands: 77 vessels.
• Liberia: 72 vessels.
• Comoros: 54 vessels.
• Saint Kitts and Nevis: 28 vessels.
• Singapore: 26 vessels.
• Hong Kong: 17 vessels.

Top company locations by vessel presence:

• Marshall Islands: 111 vessels.
• Greece: 94 vessels.
• China: 88 vessels.
• Singapore: 78 vessels.
• Liberia: 51 vessels.

This distribution highlights continued global participation in Gulf operations despite persistent disruption and elevated risk.

Vessel Activity Trends

Operational behavior across the Gulf shows shifting patterns over the past three days:

The decline in prolonged anchoring and dark activity suggests increased operational movement, while consistent identity manipulation indicates continued deceptive shipping practices.

Controlled Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz 

Iran continues to enforce selective control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz, enabling vessel movement through IRGC-controlled corridors within its territorial waters.

Over the past three days, multiple vessels have transited using this alternative routing, including LPG carriers, bulk carriers transporting agricultural cargo, and vessels linked to energy flows toward China and regional actors.

A 26-year-old, falsely flagged LNG carrier was identified as a zombie vessel that transited the Strait on March 20 before switching off its AIS. The vessel had previously been listed as “broken up” in the Equasis database, indicating identity reuse and deceptive shipping practices. Its first signal in the region appeared on March 13 at Hamriyah anchorage in the UAE, despite records showing it had been sent to Alang for shipbreaking in October.

The U.S.-sanctioned tanker North Star (IMO 9299563) transited the Strait on March 20, sailing toward Asia after receiving coverage under a temporary sanctions waiver for Iranian cargoes already in transit. The vessel was sanctioned less than a month prior, and its successful passage highlights how recent regulatory adjustments are enabling specific sanctioned cargoes to move despite broader restrictions.

On March 22, a small containership signaling “all crew China” transited the corridor, alongside the LPG carrier Meda (IMO 8818219), which regularly calls at the Houthi-controlled port.

Meanwhile, two LPG carriers were observed transiting in coordinated movement on March 23 while signaling crew nationality, suggesting deliberate identification aligned with approved passage conditions.

Three bulk carriers also moved through the corridor, including one westbound vessel signaling “cargo food for Iran,” indicating that agricultural supply flows into Imam Khomeini port are being maintained under controlled conditions.

Select energy commodities for Pakistan, along with crude flows to China and Houthi-linked destinations in Yemen, are also receiving transit authorization.

Together, these movements illustrate a structured transit environment in which access is granted based on cargo type, destination, and geopolitical alignment, rather than open commercial navigation.

Hormuz Traffic and Positional Analysis

Remote Sensing Intelligence shows a significant increase in vessel presence within the Strait:

• March 13:
  • 12 vessels above 150m.
  • 3 vessels above 250m.
• March 18:
  • 51 vessels above 150m.
  • 37 vessels between 150–250m.
  • 13 vessels above 250m.
  • Over 30 small vessels (<40m) detected.

Large vessels are concentrated along the northern Iranian routing corridor, indicating a structural shift in navigation patterns away from standard international lanes.

Iranian Crude Export Activity

As of March 20, approximately 161 million barrels of Iranian oil were on the water across 158 vessels, following the issuance of a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver valid through April 19. The waiver allows the sale of Iranian crude already loaded at sea, aimed at easing global energy supply pressures and stabilizing prices amid ongoing disruption.

The primary destination remains China, receiving over 145 million barrels.

A 12-month view shows a steady increase in Iranian exports, with peak volumes observed in February and March.

At Kharg Island, Remote Sensing Intelligence from March 21 confirms that two VLCCs and one Aframax tanker are actively loading, signaling continued export activity despite regional disruption.

Additionally, the sanctioned VLCC HAWK (IMO 9362061) loaded approximately 2.01 million barrels and departed Kharg on March 22, further reinforcing the continuity of export flows. The vessel had previously spent approximately 30 days in a Malaysian floating storage zone before returning to the Gulf on March 2, and is now reported en route to China. 

Russian Oil Flows and Infrastructure Disruption

Russian oil volumes remain elevated, with approximately 159 million barrels on the water across 228 vessels as of March 12, following the issuance of OFAC General License 134, valid through April 11. The license authorizes the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded at sea, aimed at maintaining supply continuity and mitigating further pressure on global energy markets amid ongoing disruptions.

Primary destinations remain concentrated in Asia, with China receiving over 60 million barrels.

However, supply chain stability is now under pressure. Oil export operations at Primorsk and Ust-Luga have been suspended following reported Ukrainian strikes on the facilities. Prior to the suspension, approximately 43 million barrels of crude oil and condensates had been loaded from these two ports since March 1, with an additional 67 million barrels currently on the water originating from these terminals.

The primary markets include Turkey, China, and Cuba. While volumes in transit may temporarily offset supply pressures, the suspension introduces significant forward risk.

The disruption is particularly acute for Cuba, where energy shortages are expected to deepen, with only a single tanker currently en route to the country carrying oil loaded from these ports, underscoring the fragility of supply to the island.

AIS tracking indicates 12 tankers remain stationed at the ports, including 11 at Ust-Luga and 1 at Primorsk. The fleet composition includes 5 Russian-flagged vessels, 3 operating under fraudulent flags, and 4 registered under Panama or Malta, reflecting continued reliance on mixed and opaque registry structures even as operations are disrupted.

While large volumes of Russian oil remain in circulation, infrastructure vulnerability and targeted strikes are beginning to constrain future export capacity.

Yanbu Export Shift

Saudi Arabia continues to expand crude exports via Red Sea routes.

Between March 15 and 21, approximately 22.9 million barrels were loaded, representing a ~20% increase compared to the previous week.

Remote Sensing Intelligence identified 1 VLCC and 10 tankers (>200m) loading at King Fahd terminal and 1 VLCC loading at Ra’s Al Maajjiz.

This acceleration reinforces Saudi Arabia’s strategic pivot toward Red Sea export routes to reduce reliance on Gulf transit corridors.

LNG, LPG, and Container Activity

Gas and container flows continue to reflect the depth of disruption across both energy distribution and global trade lanes.

Currently, 11 LNG tankers are transmitting AIS in the Gulf, representing a 17.2% decline compared to the 7-day average. 

LPG exports have dropped to approximately 240,000 barrels per day, just 10% of the seasonal average of 1.2 million barrels per day. 

Container vessel activity remains similarly constrained, with 38 vessels recorded, reflecting a 12.8% decrease compared to the 7-day average.

Together, these figures point to sustained suppression of both gas exports and containerized trade across the region.

Port Operations Disruptions

Port activity continues to reflect operational volatility, with increased destination changes, delays, and late departures.

Inside the Gulf

Jebel Ali (UAE):

• 2 port-of-loading late-departure cases (+100% from the previous day, +1300% compared to the 7-day average).
• 7 transshipment-delay cases (no change from the previous day, +122.73% compared to the 7-day average).
• 2 port-of-destination changes (+100% from the previous day, −76.27% compared to the 7-day average).

Khalifa Port (UAE):

• 21 port-of-destination changes (+40% from the previous day, +119.4% compared to the 7-day average).

Port Khalid, Sharjah (UAE):

• 2 port-of-loading late-departure cases (no change from the previous day and no deviation compared to the 7-day average).
• 2 transshipment-delay cases (no change from the previous day and no deviation compared to the 7-day average).

Ad Dammam (Saudi Arabia):

• 21 port-of-destination changes (+320% from the previous day, +8.89% compared to the 7-day average).

Outside the Gulf

Fujairah (UAE):

• 7 port-of-destination changes (+600% from the previous day, +880% compared to the 7-day average).

These patterns indicate ongoing adjustments in routing and scheduling under unstable operating conditions.

Military and Security Environment

The security environment remains elevated, with 20 vessels confirmed as attacked or targeted, according to JMIC reporting. In parallel, 10 energy and port infrastructure sites have been impacted, underscoring the sustained pressure on both maritime operations and critical logistics nodes.

Despite this escalation, international response remains limited. France, the EU, NATO, Japan, and South Korea have delayed or declined participation in a coordinated escort coalition, leaving commercial shipping exposed to continued threat activity.

Outlook

The maritime system remains operational but increasingly defined by control, constraint, and adaptation.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz is no longer governed by open commercial access, but by selective routing aligned with geopolitical and operational considerations.

Energy flows continue despite disruption, supported by sanctions waivers, alternative export corridors, and sustained on-water volumes, but underlying supply stability is becoming more fragile as infrastructure disruptions and enforcement pressure increase.

At the same time, reduced gas exports, constrained container activity, and volatile port operations indicate that broader trade systems have not yet stabilized.

Absent a major shift in the security environment, maritime operations are likely to remain fragmented, with continued reliance on controlled corridors, alternative routing, and adaptive behavior across both state and commercial actors.