March 17, 2026: Iran War Maritime Intelligence Daily

At a Glance

• Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near collapse, with only two crossings recorded on March 16.
• Bulk carriers are re-routing through Iranian territorial waters, indicating the emergence of selective, permission-based transit.
• Iran has executed a rare crude export from the Kooh Mobarak terminal, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
• Maritime security risk remains active in the Gulf, with a confirmed projectile strike on a tanker near Fujairah.
• Dark vessel activity and AIS suppression continue within the Strait, reinforcing ongoing sanctions evasion dynamics.
• Port activity remains unstable, with easing congestion at Salalah and elevated disruption levels in Karachi.
• Bandar Abbas shows a complete absence of commercial and military vessel presence, suggesting a potential drawdown or redistribution.
• Anomalous AIS behavior persists outside the Gulf, including prolonged “Not Under Command” broadcasts linked to Sea Horse, a Russia-associated tanker.
• Maritime security risks continue to expand geographically, with confirmed kinetic activity in the Black Sea.

Operational Overview 

Maritime activity across the Strait of Hormuz remains critically constrained as the conflict enters its third week, with transit volumes continuing at near-zero levels. On March 16, only two vessel crossings were recorded, reinforcing the sustained collapse in commercial traffic through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

At the same time, routing behavior is evolving. Bulk carriers have begun re-routing through Iranian territorial waters to exit the Gulf, sailing along the Iranian coastline rather than standard international navigation channels. This shift indicates the emergence of a controlled transit environment, where movement is selectively enabled rather than fully denied.

Iran is also adapting its export strategy. A crude shipment from the Kooh Mobarak terminal, located east of the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrates a clear effort to bypass the chokepoint entirely and maintain oil flows despite maritime disruption.

Beyond the Gulf, maritime security risks continue to expand geographically. A confirmed tanker strike in the Black Sea underscores the development of a multi-theater threat environment affecting global shipping.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic

Transit activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited.

On March 16, Windward recorded two total crossings, consisting of one inbound and one outbound vessel. This represents a 33.33% decrease compared to the previous day and remains below the 7-day average of 2.43 crossings.

All identified vessels were bulk carriers, both flagged to Panama. Overall traffic levels remain approximately 97% below normal, reinforcing the continued near-closure of the waterway to standard commercial shipping.

At the same time, routing behavior is shifting. Between March 15 and March 16, at least five bulk carriers were observed exiting the Gulf via routes within Iranian territorial waters, sailing along the Iranian coastline instead of standard navigation channels.

This pattern indicates that limited vessel movement is being reintroduced under structured and controlled conditions.

Iranian Crude Oil Export via Kooh Mobarak Terminal

A significant shift in Iranian export behavior has been identified at the Kooh Mobarak terminal, located east of the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 8, a sanctioned VLCC departed the terminal carrying approximately 1.77 million barrels of Iranian Heavy Crude, bound for Dalian, China. The vessel has remained in a 15+ day AIS blackout following departure.

Remote Sensing Intelligence confirmed the presence of a VLCC-class vessel at the terminal on March 7, consistent with the loading timeline.

This marks the first recorded export from Kooh Mobarak in 2026, following only a single shipment in 2025, indicating historically minimal usage of the terminal.

The terminal’s location enables Iran to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, reducing exposure to transit restrictions and naval threats. The activity suggests a deliberate effort to diversify export routes and sustain crude flows under constrained maritime conditions.

Maritime Security Incident

A maritime security incident was reported 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah, UAE, involving a tanker struck by an unknown projectile while at anchor.

The vessel sustained minor structural damage, with no reported injuries or environmental impact. Authorities are currently investigating the incident.

Windward was unable to definitively identify the vessel due to the presence of a GPS jamming zone in the area, which limited tracking and attribution.

This event reinforces the continued presence of low-intensity, high-frequency threat activity in proximity to key Gulf anchorage areas.

Dark Vessel Activity

SAR imagery collected on March 16 identified an OFAC-sanctioned vessel operating without AIS transmission on the western side of the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis indicates the vessel was underway and entering the Arabian Gulf, consistent with ballast status data. The vessel last transmitted AIS on March 13 near Khor Fakkan before going dark.

The vessel is associated with sanctioned networks and fraudulent flag registration, highlighting the continued use of AIS suppression and identity obfuscation to enable movement under heightened monitoring conditions.

Port Operations Disruptions

Operational patterns across regional ports indicate continued volatility, with mixed signals between disruption and localized easing.

Inside the Gulf, Umm Qasr recorded two transshipment-delay cases, with no change from the previous day and no deviation from the 7-day average.

Outside the Gulf, Karachi recorded two port-of-loading late departures, up 100% day-on-day, alongside seven rollovers, remaining unchanged from the previous day but up 1,125% compared to the 7-day average.

Salalah recorded eleven transshipment rollovers and nineteen delay cases, both showing sharp declines compared to the previous day and below the 7-day average.

The data suggests a temporary easing at Salalah, while disruption persists in Karachi, reflecting uneven pressure across alternative logistics hubs.

Bandar Abbas Activity

Satellite imagery indicates a complete absence of observable activity at Bandar Abbas as of March 15.

At the commercial dock, five vessels were present on March 2, compared to none on March 15. At the military dock, seventeen vessels were observed on March 2, with no vessels detected on March 15.

This sharp reduction suggests a temporary drawdown or redistribution of both commercial and military maritime presence at one of Iran’s primary port facilities.

Anomalous AIS Behavior

The Russia-linked tanker Sea Horse continues to exhibit anomalous AIS behavior in the Atlantic.

Since February 25, the vessel has remained in the Atlantic while continuously broadcasting a “Not Under Command” status, with no clear progression toward its previously declared destination in Cuba.

The prolonged stationary pattern and inconsistent movement signals suggest potential AIS manipulation or operational disruption, though the exact cause cannot be confirmed.

This behavior aligns with earlier indications of dark tanker activity near Cuban crude terminals, suggesting that opaque maritime logistics networks may still be facilitating energy flows despite reduced visible traffic.

Outlook

The March 17 operating picture reflects a maritime system operating under severe constraint, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively restricted and commercial traffic remaining near-zero.

At the same time, adaptive behaviors are emerging. Selective routing through Iranian territorial waters, alternative export pathways such as Kooh Mobarak, and shifting port activity patterns indicate that both state and commercial actors are adjusting to sustained disruption.

Maritime security risk remains active within the Gulf, with continued incidents near key anchorage areas, alongside ongoing dark vessel activity and AIS suppression.

Beyond the region, the confirmed tanker strike in the Black Sea and anomalous vessel behavior in the Atlantic point to a broader, multi-theater risk environment.

In the near term, maritime activity is likely to remain defined by restricted transit through Hormuz, controlled movement under selective access conditions, and continued redistribution of trade flows across global maritime corridors.