Kharg Is at a Standstill, and a Russian Shadow Fleet Convoy Runs the Arctic

At a Glance

• Kharg Island’s crude export pipeline has been at a complete standstill since July 31, with all three terminals empty, zero Vortexa-recorded departures across 10 days, and the waiting area holding 17 dark stationary tankers.
• An unprecedented convoy of eight sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tankers is coordinating passage through the Northern Sea Route, a scale with no recorded precedent in 2025 tracking data.
• No falsely flagged tankers loaded Russian oil in July, the first such month tracked by Windward, following the UK’s June boarding and seizure of SMYRTOS in the English Channel.
• Russian diesel exports collapsed 83% in July to approximately 150,000 barrels per day, down from a 2025 average of approximately 900,000 barrels per day.
• Sanctioned tankers shipped 48% of all Russian crude, refined products, and fuel oil in July, with 60% of Russia-origin crude shipped on sanctioned tankers.
• The August 1 IRGC high-speed craft peak of approximately 249 craft has not carried forward, with every subsequent day inside the tracker’s established low-to-mid band.
• Three additional Chinese-linked vessels transited Bab el-Mandeb southbound on August 7 after calling at Jeddah, bringing the confirmed running total of Chinese-linked, Saudi-connected vessels transiting the blockade unharmed to 25-plus since July 20.

Overview

Both sanctioned export pipelines are under their most acute enforcement pressure since the conflict began. On the Iranian side, Kharg Island’s crude export pipeline has been at a complete standstill since July 31, with all three terminals empty and zero Vortexa-recorded departures across 10 days. On the Russian side, an unprecedented convoy of eight sanctioned shadow fleet tankers is running the Northern Sea Route to bypass European naval enforcement, in a month when no falsely flagged tankers loaded Russian oil for the first time on record, and Russian diesel exports collapsed 83%.

Neither pipeline is closed off. Iran continues to hold at least 24 vessels in the sanctioned tanker anchorage above Larak Island. Russia is pivoting to Equatorial Guinea as a new flag registry, with 49 sanctioned shadow fleet tankers reflagged in the past six months. Elsewhere across the theaters, the August 1 IRGC high-speed craft spike has not carried forward into a sustained escalation, and three additional Chinese-linked vessels cleared Bab el-Mandeb southbound on August 7 after calling at Jeddah, bringing the confirmed running total transiting the Houthi blockade unharmed to 25-plus since July 20.

Windward assesses the operational risk environment across the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, northern Arabian Gulf, and Black Sea as critical, with both sanctioned export pipelines under acute enforcement pressure while workaround routing remains visibly available on both fronts.

Kharg Island Sits at a Complete Export Standstill

Iran’s crude export pipeline at Kharg Island remains at a complete standstill under the renewed U.S. naval blockade. All three terminals have been empty for extended periods, as the western terminal has been empty for 22 consecutive days since July 18, the LPG terminal for 13 consecutive days since July 27, and the eastern terminal for 10 consecutive days since July 30. Vortexa trade data confirms zero departures from Kharg from July 31 through August 9. The waiting area holds 17 dark stationary tankers, down one from 18 on August 5, all without AIS, consistent with a blockade-driven export halt.

Financial Times reporting via Iran International on August 8 corroborates the Windward assessment, confirming no tankers have been loading at Kharg Island for at least a week under the renewed U.S. naval blockade. The sustained terminal vacancy across all three berths, combined with zero Vortexa-recorded departures over a 10-day window, represents the most complete export halt at Kharg documented since the conflict began.

An Unprecedented Russian Shadow Fleet Convoy on the Northern Sea Route 

An unprecedented convoy of eight sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tankers is now sailing through the Northern Sea Route, coordinating passage into the Laptev Sea. The Norway-based Center for High North Logistics tracked 34 tankers using the Northern Sea Route across all of 2025, and none of those voyages included eight tankers sailing together. The convoy reflects a deliberate Russian strategic shift to route oil shipments through Arctic waters to avoid European naval enforcement and flag verification boardings in the English Channel and Mediterranean.

The eight vessels comprise four Russia-flagged Aframax tankers, three Russia-flagged Medium Range tankers, and one Oman-flagged Suezmax tanker. Cargo details per Vortexa include:

• One Russia-flagged Aframax carrying approximately 1 million barrels of crude loaded at Murmansk on July 21, signaling China for orders. 
• One Russia-flagged Aframax carrying approximately 700,000 barrels of Urals loaded at Primorsk on July 13. 
• One Russia-flagged Aframax carrying approximately 750,000 barrels of crude loaded at Murmansk on July 16. 
• One Oman-flagged Suezmax carrying approximately 1 million barrels of Urals loaded at Primorsk on July 22 signaling for orders. 
• One Russia-flagged Aframax carrying approximately 740,000 barrels of crude loaded at Murmansk on July 20 signaling China for orders. 
• Three further Russia-flagged MR tankers are also in the convoy with destinations including Russia’s Anabar River. 

An earlier Cameroon-flagged Aframax began its Northern Sea Route passage after loading at Primorsk on June 26, a voyage that has taken nearly twice as long as usual.

Russia has stepped up summer Arctic shipments to bypass naval scrutiny of tankers loading at Murmansk and Russian Baltic ports. More tankers are already diverting around Great Britain to avoid the English Channel following the UK’s boarding and seizure of a stateless shadow fleet tanker in June. The Northern Sea Route avoids sensitive jurisdictions at a time when two European naval operations, ATALANTA and IRINI, are tasked with conducting flag verification boardings of Russia’s shadow fleet tankers.

Russian Oil Exports Under Compound Pressure 

Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian port infrastructure, refineries, and tankers, alongside a European naval crackdown on stateless shadow fleet tankers, curtailed export volumes and changed how Russia manages shipping logistics over July.

No falsely flagged tankers loaded Russian oil in July, the first such month tracked by Windward, marking a clear shift in Kremlin strategy to discontinue use of fraudulent ship registries to avoid interdiction under UNCLOS Article 110, which permits boarding of stateless vessels. The last stateless vessel to load Russian oil, SMYRTOS (IMO 9389100), was boarded and seized by the UK Royal Navy in the English Channel in mid-June.

Windward and Vortexa data identified the following key figures from July.

• Thirteen diesel cargoes were shipped, equating to approximately 150,000 barrels per day, an 83% fall from the 2025 average of approximately 900,000 barrels per day and down from approximately 450,000 barrels per day in June. 
• Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries in the Black Sea resulted in an export ban on Russian diesel, cutting off the Kremlin from one of its highest-profit commodity streams. 
• Sanctioned tankers shipped 48% of all crude, refined products, and fuel oil from Russia over July, with 60% of Russia-origin crude shipped on sanctioned tankers against 66% in May and June. 
• European shipowners maintained a smaller but still significant presence under the G7 Oil Price Cap, comprising 21% of all oil loaded from Russia, down from 25% in May and June, attributed to lower diesel and fuel oil exports.

To avoid interdiction, Russia has identified Equatorial Guinea as a new flag registry. Windward data show 49 sanctioned shadow fleet tankers have reflagged to Equatorial Guinea in the past six months, including 20 since June, though only three Equatorial Guinea-flagged tankers loaded in July. Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Oman, and Sierra Leone are the remaining registries prepared to flag EU and UK-sanctioned shadow fleet tonnage. Russian-flagged ships loaded the most oil in July, followed by Liberia, Cameroon, and Panama.

The Sanctioned Tanker Cluster Above Larak Island  

EO imagery collected over the Strait of Hormuz on August 7 at 06:46 UTC identified at least 24 vessels in the sanctioned tanker anchorage area, with nine new arrivals since the August 5 pass indicating continued fleet turnover. At least 16 OFAC-sanctioned tankers are assessed as operating in probable support of Iranian crude export evasion, including VLCC-class hulls of 330, 287, and 343 meters, collectively representing substantial illicit cargo capacity.

Two vessels are confirmed laden with Iranian crude, including a Comoros-flagged OFAC-sanctioned tanker carrying approximately 1.83 million barrels of Iranian Heavy crude, and a Mozambique-flagged OFAC-sanctioned tanker assessed as floating storage carrying approximately 296,300 barrels of Iranian Heavy crude. The second vessel is displaying a fraudulent Mozambique flag despite its OFAC-sanctioned status.

Multiple vessels are operating under fraudulent flags across Botswana, Aruba, Gambia, Benin, Guinea, Curacao, and Mozambique registries, consistent with deceptive shipping practices to obscure sanctioned ownership or cargo origin. One vessel is conducting a ship-to-ship transfer with a dark 69-meter tanker. One dark 94-meter tanker is underway inbound, the sole vessel assessed as actively transiting in the window. 

MINOAN PIONEER Remains Stationary Four Days After the Strike

EO imagery collected over the Musandam Peninsula on August 7 at 06:45 UTC confirmed MINOAN PIONEER (IMO 9471630) remains stationary at the same position as prior collections, now four days after the August 3 strike. Visible smoke is no longer present in this pass, in contrast to the burning observed on August 4 and August 5. Damage to the engine room and helicopter pad remains visible in the imagery. The third engineer remains missing. A probable 44-meter cargo dhow was observed operating dark and underway inbound in the same vicinity, consistent with routine unlit small vessel transit rather than a hostile contact.

Northern Hormuz Corridor and Qeshm Island Activity

EO imagery collected over the northern Hormuz corridor on August 6 at 11:13 UTC identified a dark shipping cluster holding position, with approximately 20 fast craft observed underway across the frame alongside a chipped pair. This is consistent with elevated small-craft activity across the northern corridor. 

A dark tanker of approximately 175 meters was transiting outbound through the northern corridor at slow speed with no AIS. Two dark bulk carriers of approximately 224 and 221 meters were stationary in close proximity, with a fast craft wake track passing directly alongside one of them. A general cargo vessel of approximately 167 meters was moored with a barge alongside further north in the corridor.

A separate EO collection over Qeshm Island in the same window identified three dark maritime contacts made up of a fast craft underway inbound, a dark ship-to-ship meeting between two small vessels of approximately 55 and 59 meters, and a dark ship-to-ship meeting between a 186-meter general cargo vessel and a 95-meter tanker, all without AIS.

IRGC High-Speed Craft Spike Was an Isolated Outlier

The August 1 peak of approximately 249 craft has not carried forward into a sustained escalation. Five of seven days in the August 2 to 8 window had usable HSC coverage, and every covered day landed well inside the tracker’s established low to mid band, none approaching even the July 30 secondary peak of 73 craft, let alone the August 1 figure.

August 2 recorded 77 craft across all three corridors — 31 southern, 29 mid-strait, and 17 northern — the most broadly distributed single-day reading since July 30 but still under half of August 1’s total. August 3 dropped to 11, all northern corridor off Larak Island. August 4 fell further to 13, the lowest of the window. August 6 recorded approximately 22, northern corridor only. August 8 closed the window at 40, 29 southern across two swarms plus separately tracked contacts, and 11 northern. 

The August 1 spike now reads as an isolated outlier rather than the start of a climb. The southern corridor was the larger active box on both days it was read; the northern corridor was the most persistently covered, present on four of five covered days at a tight 11 to 22 craft.

Strait of Hormuz Transits 

August 8 recorded 17 transits, made up of 8 inbound and 9 outbound. The inbound group comprised 5 AIS-transmitting and 3 dark vessels. By vessel type, 5 were tankers under Palau, Cameroon, Marshall Islands, and unknown flags, 2 bulk carriers under Panama flag, and 1 Iran-flagged cargo vessel. All 8 inbound vessels transited via the northern corridor. 

The outbound group comprised 6 AIS-transmitting and 3 dark vessels. By vessel type, 3 were tankers under Barbados, Liberia, and Marshall Islands flags, 2 bulk carriers under Liberia and Saint Kitts and Nevis flags, and 4 cargo vessels under Comoros, India, and Iran flags. Eight transited via the northern corridor and 1 via the southern corridor.

Every Vessel at Yanbu Remains Dark 

EO imagery collected over Yanbu King Fahd on August 8 at 08:21 UTC confirmed 17 dark commercial vessels, down from 18 on August 6, with all 17 dark and no AIS transmissions, continuing the predominantly dark run since July 27. Four dark bulk carriers hold the northern berth line alongside one dark tanker at the same line. Six further dark tankers are spread across the remaining berths. Two vessels were observed underway, including a ballast tanker of approximately 182 meters inbound under tug escort with three service vessels assisting entry, and a laden LPG tanker of approximately 224 meters outbound and clear of the harbor. The recurring pair of approximately 106-meter product tankers continues to hold in the waiting area approximately 640 meters apart, both dark.

Chinese-Linked Vessels Clear Bab el-Mandeb After Saudi Port Calls 

Three additional Chinese-linked vessels transited Bab el-Mandeb southbound within a 24-hour window on August 7, immediately after calling at Jeddah, during the height of the Houthi blockade on Saudi-linked shipping. This brings the confirmed running total of Chinese-linked, Saudi-connected vessels transiting the blockade unharmed to 25-plus since July 20.

The three vessels comprise a Singapore-flagged container vessel with Taiwanese beneficial ownership and Chinese technical management, a Liberia-flagged bulk carrier built in 2025 with full Chinese beneficial ownership and operational control, and a second Singapore-flagged container vessel with Taiwanese beneficial ownership and Chinese technical management. All three carry no sanctions exposure. The fully Chinese-owned and operated vessel is the most notable of the three, as it recorded 308 hours of AIS dark activity between July 23 and August 5, two ship-to-ship meetings on July 16, and 13 course deviation events, the most opaque profile of the group.

Transit timings: 

• The first Singapore-flagged vessel called at Jeddah from July 26 to 29 and again from August 2 to 5, clearing Bab el-Mandeb southbound over 10.8 hours on August 7. 
• The Liberia-flagged vessel made 25 Jeddah port calls from June 28 to July 23, went dark for 308 hours before clearing Bab el-Mandeb southbound over 15.2 hours across August 7 to 8. 
• The second Singapore-flagged vessel called at Jeddah from August 3 to 5 and cleared Bab el-Mandeb southbound over 10.2 hours on August 7. 

No U.S., UK, or Israeli entity was identified at any ownership tier across all three vessels, consistent with the China-Houthi safe passage arrangement confirmed in prior reporting.

Pakistan-Linked Dark Activity Surges Post-Escalation 

A Windward analysis of Pakistan-linked tanker activity across the 17 months from March 2025 to August 6, 2026, using February 28, 2026, the date the Iran conflict began, as the inflection point, identifies a dramatic increase in dark activity post-escalation with no evidence of Iran-linked sanctions evasion.

Pakistan-linked tanker dark hours per month rose 254% after February 28, from 60.9 to 215.4 hours per month, with a complete geographic shift from the Middle East Gulf, which accounted for 95% of dark activity pre-escalation, to the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz region, which accounted for 58% post-escalation. Three tankers commenced dark operations post-escalation from zero prior activity. Two others pulled back or ceased dark activity. The sharp inflection in March 2026, sustained through July, reads as a fleet-level redistribution in response to regional tensions and U.S. naval enforcement rather than gradual drift.

No Iran-linked ship-to-ship convergence was detected. Ship-to-ship meetings fell 44% post-February 28. Karachi represented only 12% of pre-escalation ship-to-ship meetings and 5% post-escalation, while the UAE and Saudi waters dominated throughout at 55 to 60% of meetings. February 28 is an inflection point for tankers only, not for ship-to-ship activity or small vessel domains.

Outlook

Both sanctioned export pipelines are under their most acute enforcement pressure since the conflict began. Kharg sits at a complete standstill. Russia’s shadow fleet is running an unprecedented eight-tanker convoy through the Arctic. Neither pipeline is closed, with Iran still holding a laden tanker cluster above Larak Island and Russia pivoting to Equatorial Guinea as a new flag registry, but the pressure has clearly shifted the operating picture on both fronts.

Windward assesses the operational risk environment across the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, northern Arabian Gulf, and Black Sea as critical, with both sanctioned export pipelines under acute enforcement pressure, kinetic incidents recurring at the eastern Hormuz approach, and structural workaround routing still available on both fronts.