From New OFAC Sanctions to Strikes Impacting the Supply Chain – Weekly Roundup 

In this week’s roundup, we dive into the latest OFAC sanctions targeting Russia’s LNG “shadow fleet,” explore how Windward’s Sequence Search is uncovering behavioral patterns to look out for, and examine the ripple effects of the Canadian rail strike on the global supply chain. 

Stay informed with crucial AI insights and analysis highlighting the maritime industry’s evolving challenges.

More OFAC Sanctions Targeting the LNG “Shadow Fleet”

• OFAC published new sanctions on August 23,  against 400 individuals and entities in Russia and third-party countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East — whose products and services enable Russia to sustain its war effort and evade sanctions.
• OFAC once again targeted the developing Russian LNG “shadow fleet” by adding seven LNG tankers believed to be operating in the Arctic Ocean and in Russia’s LNG2 project.
• The vessels are Asya Energy (IMO: 9216298), Everest Energy (IMO: 9243148), Pioneer (IMO: 9256602), North Air (IMO: 9953509), North Mountain (IMO: 9953511), North Sky (IMO: 9953523), and North Way (IMO: 9953535).
• Most vessels were built between 2002 and 2005, and are between 277-293 meters long. These are considered larger LNG tankers.
• Windward data shows that all vessels sail under flags of convenience, often associated with possible illicit activity. The Asya Energy, Everest Energy, and Pioneer sail under the flag of Palau, while the North Air, North Mountain, North Sky, and North Way sail under the flag of Panama.
• Based on the historical AIS transmissions, most vessels operated in the past mainly around East Asia, the Arabian Sea, and West Africa.
• Windward’s ownership data also shows that North Air, North Mountain, North Sky, and North Way are owned by the same company, White Fox Ship Management, based in the UAE, while the Pioneer and Everest Energy are owned by the Nur Global Shipping LLC-FZ, also based in the UAE, and the Asya Energy was owned by the same company until August 7, 2024.
• Data shows that in November 2023, most vessels arrived for the first time at the Red Sea, and in June-August, they made their first visit to the North Sea and Barents Sea. First-time visits can be an indication of a change in behavior and a change in the area of operation.
• Over the last year, 41% of all port calls conducted by the vessels were conducted in South Korea, and 15% in China and Belgium.

Operational Patterns of the LNG “Shadow Fleet”

• The recently sanctioned Pioneer, Asya Energy, and Everest Energy spoofed their location (location (GNSS) manipulation) in the Barents Sea during August 2024, and arrived at the Arctic LNG2 Project in Russia, located at the port of Utrenniy. These vessels used the manipulations to hide their arrival to the LNG project, but, optical satellite imagery shows that a 277-meter, green-decked vessel, similar in size and appearance to Everest Energy, was docked at Utrenniy while not transmitting its AIS signal on August 25, 2024.

• Using Windward Sequence Search, we were able to reverse-engineer the operational pattern exhibited by the three manipulating vessels – a first-time visit to the Barents Sea, followed by a slow speed activity later flagged as a location (GNSS) manipulation. Windward’s Sequence Search capability shows that three vessels followed the same pattern in the last year, and all were conducted in August 2024.

• The other four vessels that were sanctioned followed a different pattern of operation. Based on the vessels’ behavioral patterns, the vessels visited an area in Norway and Svalbard’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and then (less than seven days later) had a port call in Sabetta. 

• Windward’s Sequence Search capability also shows that 10 LNG tankers conducted 35 dark activities over the last year after their port calls in Sabetta. Based on the data, 74% of these dark activities were conducted in Russia, near Sabetta and the port Murmansk – one of the floating terminals Russia built for LNG transshipments that were sanctioned in September 2023.

The Impact of the Canadian Rail Strike on the Supply Chain

• Canada’s two major freight railroads, Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Southern, shut down their operations in strike, on August 22.  This is the first time that they have both done this. Public sources suggest that the shutdown is estimated to affect around $1 billion worth of goods each day, and that the disruptions could potentially lead to a recessionary impact on North America’s economy via a ripple effect from Canada to the United States and Mexico.
• While the strike ended on August 26, it might still have an impact on the supply chain, and as suggested by public sources, such delays caused by four days of strike could lead to congestion and terminals filling up at ports such as Vancouver, considered one of the most significant ports of Canada.
• Based on Windward’s Ocean Freight Visibility solution, for shipments with initial carrier ETA between August 22-September 2, 2024, data shows that there was an increase in significant delays (above six days) at the Port of Vancouver, with August 30 and September 23 showing the largest number of shipments that were delayed. With most shipments showing over 12 days of delay, based on the Predictive Maritime AI™ ETA, we expect to see congestion in Vancouver during the first two weeks of September 2024.
• Based on the data, it appears that in several cases, shipments that exhibited significant delays based on the Predictive Maritime AI™ ETA are also dependent on the Canadian Railroad. The Port of Vancouver is not their final destination, and these shipments will continue via land.

• While the strike is over, Windward data shows that it might still have an impact on the supply chain, and the impact might even extend beyond Canada, affecting the global supply chain. The United States has even expressed concern over the potential disruption of agricultural exports and other goods, as Canada has a significant agricultural sector that might be vulnerable because of the strike.
• This situation highlights the critical importance of rail in maintaining stability in the supply chain. Windward Ocean Freight Visibility data shows how events such as strikes could lead to congestion and further delays.