Tanker Attacks Spread Beyond the Strait of Hormuz as Gulf Freight Costs Soar

At a Glance

• A tanker struck by multiple projectiles off Qatar on October 7 marks the first attack outside the Strait of Hormuz since September 9.
• UKMTO has reported 16 attacks on ships in the Middle East Gulf in 10 days, and all 12 vessels Windward confirmed were transiting dark through the U.S. military-assisted southern corridor.
• National oil companies are paying tankers $50 million per transit and offering discounts of $35 per barrel off the official sale price to secure sales.
• The Saudi Arabia to China VLCC rate has passed $1.3 million per day, pushing freight above 25-30% of the cost of Gulf crude compared with 1-3% in normal market conditions.
• Risk is spreading to GCC ports and anchorages, with tankers reportedly turning around mid-transit after being hailed by the IRGC.

A Tanker Is Struck Off Qatar as Gulf Attacks Surge

An unnamed tanker was struck by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles off Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, according to an October 7 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations.

UKMTO has reported 16 attacks on ships in the Middle East Gulf in the past 10 days, and this is the first outside the Strait of Hormuz since September 9.

Windward has identified and confirmed 12 of the vessels, noting all were using the U.S. military-assisted southern corridor and transiting dark, and 11 were tankers.

National Oil Companies Pay Unprecedented Sums to Keep Crude Moving

Maritime security is now at its most perilous in the region since the early days of the conflict, lifting freight costs to unprecedented levels and driving steep discounts on oil prices offered by national oil companies in order to secure sales.

National oil companies are paying tankers $50 million per transit to ship crude to ship-to-ship transfer areas off Fujairah and Oman, with discounts now at $35/barrel of the OSP (official sale price), Windward has been told.

The benchmark rate to ship crude on a VLCC to China from Saudi Arabia has surpassed $1.3 million per day; the Iran attacks intensify pressure on the logistics chain already under severe pressure to find tankers willing to undertake risky transits. The freight component of crude shipped from the Middle East Gulf now exceeds 25-30% of the cost of the commodity. In normal market conditions, this is between 1-3%.

Attacks Push Risk Into GCC Ports and Anchorages

The latest attack now extends and accelerates risk at GCC ports and anchorage areas where tankers are loading oil and gas for coordinated transits through the southern corridor. The last attack outside the Hormuz area was a Greek-owned very large crude carrier, struck in Iraqi waters on September 9.

One attack reported on October 6 (ON PEACE, IMO 9893204) injured 12 Indian seafarers.

There are now reports of tankers turning around mid-transit after being hailed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In early September, U.S. CENTCOM disabled or destroyed eight Iran-trading tankers in what was attributed to a “tanker for tanker” policy on Iran in response to strikes on ships using the southern corridor.