A Second ADNOC Strike in a Week as Koh-e-Mubarak Hardens Into an Evasion Hub

At a Glance

• Two ADNOC-affiliated vessels were struck by UAVs while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on August 14, with no injuries reported, in the second ADNOC-linked incident in under a week.
• The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the attack as hostile Iranian action and a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2817. Neither UKMTO nor U.S. Central Command had confirmed the incident as of reporting.
• Approximately 20 vessels at the Koh-e-Mubarak anchorage are assessed as conducting sanctions evasion and ship-to-ship transfer activity, with eight OFAC-designated vessels confirmed present.
• One vessel at Koh-e-Mubarak was found broadcasting under a false identity while Vortexa reports possible floating storage of approximately 1.84 million barrels of crude aboard despite a ballast appearance.
• Kharg Island’s three terminals are empty again following the departure of the VLCC that loaded between August 12 and 14.
• Two additional Pakistan-flagged crude tankers transited Bab el-Mandeb inbound toward Yanbu, bringing the confirmed total transiting the Houthi blockade unimpeded to four.
• Twelve Saudi-flagged vessels are now rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, up from eight in prior reporting, adding approximately 4,000 to 6,000 nautical miles per voyage.
• Yanbu King Fahd port has now sustained a fully dark posture for six weeks since July 27, with the August 15 vessel count of 26 above the established 16 to 21 band.

Two ADNOC Tankers Strcuk by Iranian UAVs

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned what it described as a hostile Iranian attack on two ADNOC-affiliated vessels struck by UAVs while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on August 14, with no injuries reported. The UAE called it a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2817. Neither UKMTO nor U.S. Central Command had confirmed the incident as of reporting, and Iran had not commented. 

The two vessels have been identified as a Singapore-flagged oil products tanker of approximately 229 meters linked to ADNOC Logistics and Services, and a Liberia-flagged Aframax tanker linked to ADNOC L&S, both AIS-dark since July, limiting independent verification. This follows a separate ADNOC tanker attack the UAE reported on August 8, making it the second reported ADNOC-linked incident in under a week.

Koh-e-Mubarak Confirmed as an Active Sanctions Evasion Hub

EO imagery collected over the Koh-e-Mubarak anchorage on August 14 at 07:07 UTC identified a cluster of approximately 20 vessels — tankers, LPG carriers, and bulk carriers — assessed as conducting sanctions evasion and ship-to-ship transfer activity, with eight OFAC-designated vessels confirmed present.

All sanctioned vessels are operating under OFAC EO13846 and EO13902 designations linked to Iran. One vessel was confirmed conducting an active ship-to-ship meeting with a dark 72-meter vessel. Another vessel was found broadcasting under a false identity while Vortexa reports possible floating storage of approximately 1.84 million barrels of crude oil aboard despite showing a ballast appearance, a significant identity deception. A different vessel arrived laden with approximately 616,200 barrels of naphtha from Sirik, Iran, with a declared destination of Sikka, India, suggesting possible transshipment or misdeclared routing.

Several vessels have been stationary for extended periods, confirming this location is an established and ongoing shadow fleet aggregation point rather than a transient encounter. New arrivals between August 11 and 14 include four bulk carriers, indicating continued fleet turnover and active operations. Two additional laden dark tankers of approximately 337 and 152 meters and two ballast dark tankers of approximately 237 and 174 meters are also present, likely supporting undeclared cargo transfers.

Southern Corridor Dark Transits Continue 

Dark transits through the southern corridor continued across the reporting period. A Panama-flagged VLCC of 333 meters transited outbound dark on August 14 to 15, going dark on August 14 at 14:01 UTC and reappearing on AIS on August 15 at 15:01 UTC, assessed as transiting the southern corridor in ballast per Vortexa. 

A Norway-flagged bulk carrier of 200 meters transited outbound dark on the same night, going dark on August 14 at 08:33 UTC and reappearing on August 15 at 00:47 UTC, also assessed via the southern corridor. 

A Marshall Islands-flagged tanker of 157 meters transited outbound dark on the night of August 15 to 16, going dark at 09:02 UTC on August 15 and reappearing at 02:23 UTC on August 16, assessed in ballast via the southern corridor per Vortexa. 

These dark transits represent a sample of continued southern corridor dark activity across the reporting period rather than an exhaustive tally.

Larak and Qeshm Show Concentrated Dark Activity

EO imagery collected over the Larak area on August 13 at 10:14 UTC identified a large concentration of stationary dark vessels, an active ship-to-ship transfer between two dark tankers, and an OFAC-sanctioned tanker, stationary in the area. A large dark container vessel with significant damage was also identified, assessed with tentative confidence as the CMA CGM SAN ANTONIO, which was boarded and looted by IRGCN earlier in the conflict. The vessel’s cargo and accommodation sections appeared to have sustained projectile damage.

EO imagery collected over the Qeshm area on August 14 at 07:07 UTC identified approximately 30 dark tankers in the northern corridor, nearly all stationary. Three OFAC-sanctioned vessels were transmitting AIS. Two small dark tankers of approximately 53 and 74 meters were positioned adjacent to one another in a possible ship-to-ship meeting configuration. One dark tanker of approximately 91 meters was underway at approximately 2 knots heading toward Larak. 

Kharg Island Terminals Empty Again

The August 16 collection at 07:09 UTC showed all three terminals empty. The dark VLCC assessed as loading between August 12 and 14 has departed. The LPG terminal has been vacant for 20 consecutive days since July 27, and the eastern terminal for 17 consecutive days since July 30. The collection covered only a partial footprint of the waiting area, confirming three dark stationary tankers within coverage, a laden VLCC of approximately 333 meters present since July 7, a newly arrived laden VLCC of approximately 333 meters, and a ballast vessel of approximately 177 meters present since July 19.

Bab el-Mandeb Transit Picture

EO imagery collected over Bab el-Mandeb on August 13 at 10:16 UTC identified eight vessels, seven AIS-transmitting and one dark outbound tanker. The AIS-transmitting group comprised two vehicle carriers, two general cargo vessels, one crude oil tanker, one product and chemical tanker, and one container ship. The dark outbound vessel is assessed as likely carrying crude oil, representing the primary operational concern in the window, its identity, flag state, ownership, and load status remain unknown.

Two More Pakistani Tankers Transit the Blockade

Two additional Pakistan-flagged crude oil tankers transited Bab el-Mandeb this week inbound toward Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, bringing the confirmed total of Pakistani state-operated tankers transiting the active Houthi blockade unimpeded to four. One vessel is transmitting its Yanbu destination clearly on AIS. The second is still showing Karachi as its declared destination despite having already called there on August 4, with Vortexa confirming the actual heading as Yanbu. 

The pattern reinforces the finding from prior reporting that Pakistani tankers are transiting the blockade corridor without incident, consistent with Pakistan’s July 22 public warning that any attack on Pakistani-flagged vessels would be treated as a grave threat to national security.

Saudi Cape Reroutes Expand to Twelve Vessels 

Twelve Saudi-flagged tankers and bulk carriers are now rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope this week, avoiding Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal entirely. The detour adds approximately 4,000 to 6,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days per voyage. Several vessels changed their declared destination more than once mid-transit. The expansion from eight vessels documented in prior reporting to 12 this week reflects the continued and deepening commercial disruption the Houthi blockade is imposing on Saudi crude export logistics.

Yanbu Holds Six Weeks Fully Dark

EO imagery collected over Yanbu King Fahd on August 15 at 11:05 UTC confirmed 26 vessels, 20 tankers and 5 bulk carriers, across the port and anchorages, all AIS-dark and all stationary. Eleven tankers were at berth alongside 5 bulk carriers, with 9 stationary tankers in the waiting area and 1 tanker outbound sailing. The August 15 count of 26 is above the 16 to 21 vessel band that has held across the past 20-plus days. The fully dark posture has now been sustained for six weeks since July 27 with no recovery.

The August 16 collection at 08:27 UTC showed 20 vessels, 17 tankers and 3 bulk carriers, all AIS-dark and stationary. Twelve tankers were at berth, up from 11 on August 15, alongside 3 bulk carriers, down from 5. Five tankers were anchored in the waiting area with no vessels underway. Between the two collections, 5 tankers departed their berths, and 4 new tankers docked and began loading, confirming continued active vessel cycling despite the fully dark posture.

Outlook

The second ADNOC-linked strike in under a week establishes a pattern rather than an isolated incident, with both vessels running AIS-dark since July and neither UKMTO nor CENTCOM confirming the attack. The verification gap around AIS-dark tonnage is itself becoming a structural feature of the operating environment, as vessels going dark to reduce targeting exposure simultaneously reduce the independent evidence available when they are struck.

Iranian anchorages are now visibly functioning as institutionalized evasion infrastructure rather than opportunistic gathering points. Koh-e-Mubarak holds approximately 20 vessels with eight OFAC-designated hulls, sustained multi-day presence, active ship-to-ship transfers, and at least one vessel running a false identity over a possible 1.84 million barrels. Larak and Qeshm show concentrated dark clusters in the same window, with an OFAC-sanctioned tanker stationary at Larak and approximately 30 dark tankers in the northern corridor off Qeshm.

On the Saudi side, the commercial disruption continues to deepen. Cape of Good Hope reroutes have grown from eight vessels to twelve, adding thousands of nautical miles and up to two weeks per voyage, while Yanbu King Fahd has now held a fully dark posture for six weeks with active vessel cycling continuing throughout. Pakistani-flagged tonnage continues to transit Bab el-Mandeb unimpeded, with the confirmed total now at four.

Windward assesses the operational risk environment across the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and northern Arabian Gulf as critical, with kinetic incidents recurring against Gulf state shipping, Iranian anchorages operating as established evasion infrastructure, and Saudi export logistics absorbing escalating structural cost.