Two Critical Factors for Maximizing Unmanned Technology

Don’t Get Lost in a Sea of Data

Unmanned systems are cheaper to produce and deploy, allowing for more of them to be operational at any given time. But more is better only if the deployment is thought out and effective. See our previous blog post, which outlines the challenges of unmanned tech. 

The first step before deploying an asset, manned or unmanned, is to decide where to deploy it. In the dauntingly expansive oceans, how do you choose where to look? Pre-mission planning is often based on historical data – deployed where illicit or threatening behavior has been known to happen before, or in known hubs of activity. The key word here is known. Deployment planning often falls into the trap of habit or inertia, rather than proactive operational planning meant to discover the unknown or to discover how the maritime ecosystem is constantly evolving.

As the number of deployed assets grows, data increases in parallel. First, there is more data about what is happening near and around these assets, and it is crucial to ensure the assets’ ongoing protection by constantly being aware of which vessels are currently near or approaching the asset. 

Second, the reason to have more operational assets is to obtain better visibility into a wider area. This also means more data – more dots on the map at any given time. This is both the objective but also the challenge – how do you transform data into information, information into knowledge, and knowledge into action?

AIS data comes with a great deal of “noise” and effective operation involves taking the data, processing it, and producing actionable insights. Effective pattern recognition and adapting to changes is difficult without a good base of historical data, as noted in our executive brief on Windward’s AI technology, but obtaining ten years of historical AIS data costs millions of dollars. 

And working with less than that puts you at risk of not having sufficient data to optimally train and refine the AI data models that have become mandatory for the complex maritime ecosystem. 

Effective Pre-Mission Planning 

Effective use of unmanned and autonomous systems relies on pre-deployment operational planning – knowing where and when to focus attention. As mentioned, oftentimes unmanned systems are sent, at best, to where they have traditionally been deployed or, at worst, based on hunches. 

An effective approach to pre-mission planning relies on accurate data and insights fueling the decision-making process. Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform can be integrated with unmanned systems to optimize strategic operations with predictive intelligence, comprehensive risk insights, and operational recommendations.

Windward assesses risk levels using open-source data and a ship’s historical data. Ships are classified into red (high risk), yellow (low risk), and blue (low risk) categories. These classifications are based on historical data, including deviations from normal economical behavior, past illegal activity, instances of turning off their transponder, and other relevant factors providing valuable insights for maritime surveillance operations.

At any given moment, there are hundreds of thousands of vessels at sea, some transmitting with their automatic identification system (AIS) while others do not. Even when focusing on a specific area of interest, such as the Persian Gulf, the sheer number of vessels makes it difficult to decide where to focus attention. The image below shows 13,450 active vessels in the Persian Gulf – too many to serve as the basis for operational decisions about where to focus attention.

To be more effective and get a laser-focused picture of where assets should be deployed, as well as to map the threat landscape and identify targets, two steps can be taken. First, build a vessel profile to narrow down results even further. For example, the vessel’s past activities (previous port calls, deceptive shipping practices, etc.), flags of interest, or historical voyages. Second, apply Windward’s predictive behavior risk models, which can identify vessels that are more likely involved in smuggling events or illicit behavior.

Refining the search to only show vessels flagged by the Windward’s system as high or moderate risk for smuggling yields a considerably more manageable picture – showing a total of 633 vessels, 411 of them high risk. But there are still too many vessels that are too scattered to serve as the basis for a clear patrol route…

To narrow the search even further, these high and moderate-risk vessels can be queried based on: 

• The vessels’ flag – looking at flags of convenience, or a specific nationality
• Previous port or port of destination
• Behavioral history – behaviors known as likely indicators of illicit activities, such as dark activity, slow-speed, or location tampering

A known sequence of activities – for example, a port call in Iran followed by dark activity in the Persian Gulf.

The above image shows vessels marked as high or moderate risk that have conducted ID & location tampering in the Persian Gulf in June 2024. From 584 high and moderate-risk vessels, there are now only 75 vessels to inspect – and it is simple to see where in the Persian Gulf they are concentrated.

Armed with this information, it is much easier to know where to look and build an explainable, justified, and intentional patrol route based on specific targets of interest, known hubs of illicit activities, or suspicious behavioral patterns.

Don’t Forget the Creation of Common Operating Pictures

Security and defense missions often involve dozens of different agencies and organizations, and collaboration between troops or unmanned systems on the water, land, and in the air is paramount to mission success. A common operating picture (COP) that receives data from multiple sources and shares it with relevant stakeholders in real time can be as challenging to create as it is critical.

Information is power and the simple, easy, and fast sharing of information between one agency and another can be the thing on which the mission depends. 

Having yet another platform to operate during a mission is not conducive to success. Insights must be integrated directly into existing workflows and systems, ensuring that the data being collected and transmitted by the unmanned assets – and all other sources of information – is fed into and analyzed in the same space. API technology that allows for insights to be integrated directly into existing workflows and systems is more important than ever in this new unmanned era. 

Windward’s NEW white paper, The Two Factors that Unlock the Effectiveness of Unmanned & Autonomous Systems, goes in-depth on the challenges and benefits of unmanned technology. 

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