Geopolitics → Sanctions → Trade Flows: Expect the Shift 

Geopolitics, sanctions, and trade flows are intertwined forces that shape the maritime and trade landscape. We’ll see how these dynamics continue to evolve this year, driving both opportunities and challenges for stakeholders. 

Based on insights from Windward’s 2025 Top Trends in Global Trade report, this blog post explores the shifting tides of deceptive shipping practices, sanctions enforcement, trade realignments, and emerging vulnerabilities in global infrastructure.

Evolving Trade Patterns and Regulatory Shifts

The familiar pattern will once again play out in 2025: sudden geopolitical changes will result in sanctions, which will significantly alter trade flows. Or vice versa, with sanctions pushing stakeholders to adopt new trade patterns and flows.

Deceptive shipping practices (DSPs) will continue to shift and evolve, as always, depending on regulations, sanctions, and opportunities. Location (GNSS) manipulation is possibly growing the fastest, with an increase in quarterly average in 2024 by 52% vs. 2023. 

2024 also saw a 28% increase in ownership changes by Russian-affiliated tankers and major spikes in designated companies in the UAE (+189%), India (+3,100%), Liberia (+1,850%), and Panama (+700%). 

The growing influence of the BRICS coalition – particularly with the addition of new member states Saudi Arabia and the UAE – introduces a counterweight to Western trade and regulatory frameworks. At the 2024 BRICS summit, member nations proposed alternative payment systems for trade to circumvent reliance on the U.S. dollar. This could create parallel trade networks that challenge the effectiveness of G7-led sanctions and environmental regulations. 

Maybe a silver lining for traders and shippers among these challenges is that governments are increasingly speaking with a “single voice.” Sanctions compliance officers were accustomed to receiving single visits from different agencies within. 

In 2025, they will often arrive as a delegation: combined teams from the commerce and treasury departments, and others. There is also “tri-seal” guidance, with three or more regulators combining to issue guidance. This unification will help traders and shippers streamline processes and work more efficiently. 

Traders & Shippers Will Watch Iran-Linked Vessels Closely

Passed in 2024, the SHIP Act requires the American president to impose blocking sanctions and other restrictions on certain foreign persons – including owners and operators of ports, vessels, and refineries – involved in activities related to the transportation, processing, and refining of Iranian-origin crude oil, or petroleum products. 

Four hundred Iran-linked vessels were flagged following the SHIP Act in the fall of 2024 and the industry was surprised to discover that 20% were liquified petroleum gas (LPG) tankers. Iran’s LPG exports rose to a record, despite U.S. sanctions. 

Also, Syria’s regime was swiftly and surprisingly toppled. So far things have been relatively calm, but should we eventually expect sanctions and shifting trade flows? Stay tuned…

The timeline between vessels engaging in deceptive shipping practices (DSPs) to being designated by regulators shortened noticeably in 2024. Also, governing bodies shifted from entirely focusing on sanctioned countries, to also looking at the third-party countries that support them, particularly regarding Russian oil. This proved partially effective, but also further complicated compliance.  

The Trump Effect 

Incoming American President Donald J. Trump has spoken frequently about again imposing tariffs on trade with China – plus Mexico and Canada, potentially complicating plans to mitigate the effects of the China tariffs. During Trump’s previous stint, tariffs on Chinese goods reached over $550 billion. 

The maritime ecosystem will feel this impact almost immediately. Chinese ports such as Shanghai and Ningbo – currently among the busiest in the world – may see reduced U.S.-bound cargo volumes. Alternative manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia and India could experience growth. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. surged by 36% during the height of the U.S.-China trade war in 2019. A similar pattern is likely to repeat, further diversifying global shipping routes.

See Windward’s analysis for a deeper dive on Trump’s intended tariffs. 

Russia’s war and the accompanying sanctions may also look quite different in 2025. Sanctions have significantly curtailed Russia’s ability to export crude oil, liquid natural gas (LNG), and other commodities, leading to the proliferation of a gray fleet – vessels engaged in suspicious trading to bypass restrictions. Legitimate trade flows are expected to resume if sanctions are lifted, reducing reliance on deceptive practices. 

This realignment would underscore the need to be able to adapt quickly to the constantly changing regulatory landscape. 

Critical and Underwater Infrastructure

Ports, pipelines, and communication networks are increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks and physical threats, despite their crucial role in our daily lives. Following the severing of various underwater communication cables in the Baltic Sea toward the end of 2024, expect this to be a hot topic in 2025. 

Recent attacks have already spurred action even before the start of 2025: 

“The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) says that it will review and update its rules regarding submarine communications cables, especially after the incident in the Baltic Sea earlier this week where a Chinese freighter sailing from Russia is suspected to have sabotaged two undersea internet cables that connect Sweden and Finland to the rest of Central Europe…”

Heightened Governmental Focus on the Arctic 

Governments are increasingly shaping the maritime domain through strategic initiatives and regulatory frameworks. One of the most significant trends in 2025 is the heightened focus on Arctic exploration and passage. With ice caps continuing to retreat, the Arctic is becoming a critical arena for resource extraction and shipping. 

TradeWinds notes that the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which services the Arctic ports, looks set to hit record numbers by the end of 2024, with most of the shipments moving between Russia and China. 

With nations like Russia, China, and the United States vying for control, Russia’s NSR has become a key focus of its maritime strategy, with significant investments in icebreakers and infrastructure. However, the environmental risks associated with Arctic development remain a contentious issue, requiring a balanced approach.

The South China Sea also continues to heat up, with geopolitical tensions escalating. Chinese vessels are adopting increasingly aggressive tactics in disputed waters. This includes illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, which threatens regional stability and depletes marine resources.

Adapting to a Shifting Maritime Landscape

The maritime ecosystem will remain at the heart of geopolitical, regulatory, and trade developments in 2025. From sanctions reshaping trade flows to evolving deceptive practices and rising risks to critical infrastructure, adaptability will be key for traders, shippers, and policymakers alike. Windward will continue to provide the data and insights needed to navigate these complexities and thrive in an ever-changing global landscape.

Check out our 2025 trends report for more insights like these. 

Navigate 2025 with Confidence