Recent events in the Baltic and Northern seas highlight the growing vulnerability of critical undersea infrastructure systems and the geopolitical complexities tied to their security.
These critical lifelines are under increasing threat. With damage – both accidental and deliberate – on the rise, the fragile nature of this infrastructure is coming into sharper focus.
This blog post serves as a follow-up to the recent masterclass, Critical Undersea Infrastructure Is the New War Front – Are You Prepared?, featuring a distinguished panel of experts:
- Dr. Sidharth Kaushal, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
- General Stephen R. Lyons, USA (Ret.), Senior Advisor at WestExec Advisors
- Matan Peled, Co-Founder and Head of U.S. Business at Windward
- Nadav Libhaber, Director of Partnerships at Windward
Together, they unpacked the pressing challenges facing undersea infrastructure security and the critical steps needed to protect these hidden lifelines. Which capability did one of the external speakers say was “invaluable”? Keep reading to find out…
Why Now? Understanding this Critical Moment in Undersea Infrastructure Security
The seabed beneath our oceans is a vast, interconnected web of critical undersea infrastructure housing over 1.3 million kilometers of undersea cables responsible for carrying 95% of global internet traffic and supporting an estimated $10 trillion in international trade daily. This infrastructure underpins communication networks, hospitals, supply chains, and even military operations. Yet, as recent incidents in the Baltic and Northern Seas demonstrate, they are alarmingly vulnerable.
Since 2000, reported incidents involving undersea cables have skyrocketed from just two to nearly 75 in 2024. “We’re witnessing the flip side of an interconnected global economy,” said Dr. Kaushal, a distinguished researcher from the Royal United Services Institute. “Limited disruptions can now have disproportionately large effects, highlighting how critical these cables are and how fragile the system has become.”
Dr. Kaushal continued to explain, as adversaries increasingly target civilian infrastructure, it’s becoming clear that “in the modern world, the center of society’s gravity was not its military, but its supporting apparatus, so to speak, the critical infrastructure that kept it running.”
Disrupting undersea cables, the backbone of our global connectivity, can create widespread economic and societal upheaval. This shift highlights the urgency of enhanced vigilance and collaborative action.
Blurred Lines: Who’s Responsible for Undersea Cable Security?
One of the most significant challenges lies in determining jurisdiction and responsibility. These cables traverse international waters, connecting countries and continents, making it nearly impossible to classify their security as a purely domestic issue. The fragmented responsibility between public and private sectors further complicates the matter.
As General Lyons, a retired four-star general, pointed out, global connectivity is shaping infrastructure and influencing the 21st century more profoundly than traditional geopolitical borders and boundaries.
Dr. Kaushal noted an additional layer of complexity. “A significant portion of the sensors and technology required for maritime domain awareness, such as unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), are owned by private companies rather than national navies.”
The Norwegian Navy had to rely on its oil and gas sector for data when investigating a suspected cable sabotage incident, for instance. This reliance underscores the critical need for robust public/private partnerships and multi-national frameworks to pool resources and data effectively.
Distinguishing Accidents from Sabotage: Behavioral Analysis
While cable damage sometimes occurs accidentally, intentional sabotage presents a growing threat. Behavioral analysis has emerged as a vital tool in distinguishing between the two.
“For example, if a vessel significantly reduces its speed over a cable without a valid reason like anchoring, it raises red flags,” explained Nadav Libhaber, Windward’s Director of Partnerships.
Windward’s AI-driven platform integrates behavioral analysis, Gen AI, and open-source intelligence to connect disparate data points, offering unparalleled insight into potential threats.
In one case, AI flagged a vessel’s loitering near a cable – an anomaly that, when investigated further, correlated with a damaged communication line. By leveraging such solutions, organizations can act preemptively and mitigate risks more effectively, and investigate them faster and more thoroughly after the fact.
General Lyons emphasized the importance of these technologies: “Windward’s ability to analyze and decipher patterns at scale is invaluable. Public-private collaboration is critical to countering nefarious activities and enhancing global security.”
Looking Ahead: Building Resilience through Collaboration
Threats to undersea infrastructure are multiplying and evolving. The path forward demands a united effort. Governments, private companies, and international organizations must collaborate to:
- Enhance multilateral frameworks: establish multi-national agreements to streamline data sharing and response coordination
- Leverage advanced technology: invest in AI and behavioral analytics to improve situational awareness and threat detection
- Prioritize critical areas: focus on high-risk zones, like semi-enclosed seas and chokepoints where sabotage is easier to execute
- Develop enforcement mechanisms: explore legal frameworks, such as the Paris Conventions on the Protection of Undersea Cables, to enable proactive interdiction and accountability
As Dr. Kaushal concluded: “The challenge ahead is not just technological, but also strategic. We must balance vigilance with pragmatism to safeguard these vital lifelines of the global economy.”
Windward is committed to leading this charge, providing solutions, such as Windward Early Detection, and the insights necessary to navigate an increasingly complex maritime landscape. By working together, we can build a resilient and secure future for the infrastructure that connects us all.
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